Uncover the response of the U.S grain commodity market on El Niño–Southern Oscillation

Su, Yuandong; Liang, Chao; Zhang, Li; Zeng, Qing

doi:10.1016/j.iref.2022.05.003

Cited by 14 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…While doing so, the model successfully displays the time-changing trend of the influence of the ENSO event on the price of agricultural products. While Lou et al [18] employed an EMD algorithm and a GARCH model, Tack and Ubilava [30] used the moment-based maximum entropy (MBME) model to demonstrate a negative relationship between ENSO and wheat futures price yield [27].…”

Section: The Perspective Research Methods On Agricultural Production ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Research on the Impact of El Nino Phenomenon on the Volatility of the U.S. Soybean Futures Price Yield

Guo

2023

SHS Web Conf.

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Frequent occurrences of the EI-Nino phenomenon have made the influence of ENSO on the commodity market a hot research topic. To further investigate the connection between climate change and commodities markets and to offer a benchmark for future economic growth This study focuses on the impact of El Nio on the futures price yield of U.S. soybeans to give a new research direction for academics and investors. This research employs the GARCH-Mean model to estimate returns, then applies the event study approach and parametric tests to see whether there are significant differences in the futures price yield for U.S. soybeans. Test results indicate that EI Nino events have not had a substantial impact on the yield of U.S. soybean futures prices during the recent EI Nino phenomenon. This conclusion indicates that climate change may not be the primary factor influencing the future price of U.S. soybeans, and researchers must consider other factors. In addition, as a result of technological advancement, the government may predict that investors had already prepared for the volatility of the commodity market.

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Section: The Perspective Research Methods On Agricultural Production ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Research on the Impact of El Nino Phenomenon on the Volatility of the U.S. Soybean Futures Price Yield

Guo

2023

SHS Web Conf.

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“…Ye et al (2021) investigated 15 Chinese commodities futures prices and found that the volatility of commodity futures was impacted more strongly by macroeconomic forecasts than by concurrent economic conditions. Su et al (2022) analyzed three commodities futures (corn, soybean, and wheat) from 1990 to 2021, and found that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) played a significantly important role in grain futures price volatility. Zhao (2022) examined crude oil prices from 2000 to 2020, and found that crude oil inventory, US dollar exchange rate, and geopolitical risk had a significant influence on oil price volatility.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of COVID-19 on the Volatility of Copper Futures

Melo-Vega-Angeles,

Chuquillanqui-Lichardo

2023

Economies

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The COVID-19 pandemic has introduced significant uncertainty across various economic sectors, most notably in the industrial sector due to the high volatility in copper futures markets. These markets play a crucial role in the construction, electrical networks, electronic products, and industrial machinery industries. Therefore, the aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the volatility of copper futures returns from 2 January 2018 to 30 December 2022 using an extended ARMA(m,n)–GARCH(p,q) framework. According to the results, the occurrence of the pandemic nearly doubled the long-run equilibrium volatility of returns compared to the values obtained in the pre-pandemic period. Hence, we conclude that the COVID-19 pandemic has a significant influence on the volatility in the copper futures market.

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“…Genetically modified seed material and agricultural technologies increase yields by 40-50 kg per hectare [5]. For the third year in a row, grain crops, including corn, have been negatively affected by the natural phenomenon of La Niña (a drop in surface water temperature below the climatic norm), which causes dry weather in the Midwest (in the prairies) [6] . In 2022, about 30% of the sown areas in the USA were affected by the drought (Fig.…”

Section: Presenting Main Materialsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting the Export Potential of Fodder Corn Producers

Охріменко

Zhukovska

2023

RTEM

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Global food security is based on the uninterrupted supply of basic foodstuffs. In their structure, a significant place is given to fodder corn, used for fattening livestock and poultry and therefore exerts a significant influence on the production of meat, milk and eggs. Ukraine occupies an essential position in the world production and export of corn along with the USA, Brazil and Argentina. Components of export potential are unique for each country. At the same time, the growing global demand for fodder corn poses a task for producers to increase productivity, and therefore the production volumes of this crop. Goal. The purpose of the article is to analyze and build predictive models of export volumes to determine the distribution of the world feed corn market of the leading countries, taking into account the current situation related to military aggression in Ukraine. Method. In the process of the research, regression analysis was used to identify the dependence between the level of export volume and indicators of productivity and production prices for the studied countries; the Holt method - was for building predictive models, the results of which are used to forecast the volume of exports based on the constructed multiple regression equation; statistical analysis. The results. In the process of achieving leadership positions in the world fodder corn market, the producers of the studied countries underwent significant quantitative and qualitative changes in the process of crop production. Ukraine has significant potential for increasing the production and export of fodder corn. Considering the military actions in Ukraine, which complicated logistics processes, the study considers three scenarios: ideal - Ukrainian corn producers have the proper conditions for the production and transportation of corn; negative - Ukraine cannot export goods due to a lack of proper conditions for its production; limited - the reduction of cultivated areas, improper observance of agricultural technologies and limitations of logistical capabilities limit the production and export potential of the country. Scientific novelty. The factors affecting the export potential of the leading countries in the production of fodder corn have been identified. A forecast of productivity and production volumes has been developed. A scenario analysis was carried out. Practical significance. The value of the research lies in the development of theoretical and methodological provisions for assessing the country's export potential.

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Uncover the response of the U.S grain commodity market on El Niño–Southern Oscillation

Cited by 14 publications

References 34 publications

Research on the Impact of El Nino Phenomenon on the Volatility of the U.S. Soybean Futures Price Yield

Research on the Impact of El Nino Phenomenon on the Volatility of the U.S. Soybean Futures Price Yield

The Impact of COVID-19 on the Volatility of Copper Futures

Forecasting the Export Potential of Fodder Corn Producers

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