Highlights• Shrub cover has increased in former agricultural lands worldwide.• Colonization rates are explained by the identity of shrub species.• Species idiosyncratic effects are contingent on water availability.• Abiotic attributes, such as aspect or rock cover, played a lesser role.
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AbstractThe increase in shrub cover and density is a widespread phenomenon in drylands worldwide. Its causes and consequences are complex and strongly idiosyncratic. Detailed knowledge of the rate of shrub colonization, and its abiotic and biotic drivers is crucial to fully understand and manage these areas. We used a set of aerial photographs (1956, 1978, 1985, 1998 and 2009) describing early, gradual and late recruitment, respectively. Differences in shrub patch colonization rate were related to the identity of patch-forming species, but contingent on water availability. Total increases in shrub patch density were larger when patches were dominated by late colonizer species. Overall shrub patch dynamics was mostly related to the identity of patchforming species and climatic conditions, and to a lesser extent physical factors such as aspect and rock cover. Given the sensitivity of patch-forming species to climatic conditions, new challenges for steppe management will emerge over the next decades. Species able to thrive under harsh conditions may increase their dominance at the expense of species adapted to less demanding conditions.