Under the Kremlin's Thumb: Does Increased State Control in the Russian Gas Sector Endanger European Energy Security?

A MonteCarlo approach for assessing the adequacy of the European gas transmission system under supply crisis conditions

“…The security of EU gas supply has been analyzed thoroughly in the literature, taking into account the various related aspects: from the geopolitical and strategic point of view, studies have mainly focused on Russian influence on European energy security (see, e.g., Weisser, 2007;Heinrich, 2008;Baker Schaffer, 2008;Finon and Locatelli, 2008). Market aspects have been extensively examined (Kjärstad and Johnsson, 2007), often with the support of specifically developed market models of the gas supply chain in Europe (Lise et al, 2008;Holz et al, 2008;Egging et al,2008), while Lochner and Bothe (2009) have shown the added value of inserting European gas market in a wider global vision of gas trade.…”

The Geopolitics of Global Energy Security

“…Today the state‐controlled monopoly Gazprom handles Russia’s gas exports. As a commercial company, Gazprom seeks to maximise revenue from its gas exports to Europe, especially as domestic sales are heavily subsidised; however, the Kremlin has taken to using gas prices as a means of rewarding or punishing neighbouring former Soviet states (Heinrich 2008). Thus, many in the West feel that there is clear geopolitical dimension to Russia’s gas export policy (Barysch 2008; Belkin 2008; Saunders 2008).…”

Deutschland und seine östlichen Nachbarn

“…Klüfers, Masala, Tepel und Tsetsos definieren in ihrem Beitrag "Strategic Forsight -Die Zukunft antizipieren": "… das Instrument der Vorausschau (…) soll dazu dienen, adäquate Antworten auf Risiken und Gefahren des friedlichen Zusammenlebens zu finden." 18 Sie kategorisieren zudem Methoden zur Erstellung von Vorausschauen. Am häufigsten werden demnach Szenariomethoden eingesetzt.…”

“…Es wird aber auch die Frage diskutiert, ob in einer stark vernetzten und komplexen Welt Strategie noch möglich ist. 21 Entscheidend für die Außenpolitik sind dabei klare Ziele und Ergebnisorientierung. Komplexität und Unsicherheit gehören in der Außenpolitik mehr als in anderen Politikbereichen dazu.…”