Understanding Climate‐Hydrologic‐Human Interactions to Guide Groundwater Model Development for Southern High Plains

Abstract

Abstract:The Ogallala Aquifer is the only reliable source of freshwater in the Southern High Plains (SHP) and is used extensively to build a strong agricultural economy with a significant impact on global food security. Groundwater models capable of simulating human-hydrologic-climate interactions are crucial to guide future water management and policy planning endeavors in this water stressed region. A well-defined conceptual model is a necessary first-step in that direction. Conceptual modeling should not be limited to compiling necessary datasets but must also focus on generating critical insights pertaining to humanclimate-aquifer interactions especially when the emphasis is on guiding future policy. Model integration and the feasibility of coupling available tools and techniques must be explored to fill-in critical data gaps and capture interactions with a high degree of fidelity. A conceptual modeling framework built on this premise was applied to guide an on-going regional-scale groundwater modeling study in the SHP. The paucity of groundwater production data was identified as a major limiting factor. A linked Decision Support System for Agro-Technology Transfer (DSSAT) model with MODFLOW is expected to be useful in obtaining groundwater production estimates through detailed crop modeling. The time to recharge is long (decades to centuries) over most of the SHP. As such, the coupling of watershed and groundwater models is perhaps not warranted. Baseflow separation indicated that surface water-groundwater interactions have diminished over the last six decades due to declining water tables. While groundwater withdrawals generally increased during droughts, the aquifer also buffered climatic influences at some locations.

Simulating the Impacts of Irrigation Levels on Soybean Production in Texas High Plains to Manage Diminishing Groundwater Levels

“…; Uddameri et al. ). Dwindling groundwater resources pose a threat to global food security (Hanjra and Qureshi ) and adversely impact rural economies worldwide (Burke and Moench ; Wang et al.…”

Is Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) a Useful Indicator to Forecast Groundwater Droughts? — Insights from a Karst Aquifer

“…However, aquifers in many parts of the world are poorly monitored in comparison to other hydro-meteorological systems. Even in heavily stressed aquifers (e.g., the High Plains Aquifer), where extensive network of wells exist, groundwater monitoring is often limited to a single annual measurement per well (Whittemore et al 2016;Uddameri et al 2017). Groundwater pumping records are even sparse and a recognized limitation for understanding how aquifers respond to climate change (Russo and Lal 2017).…”

Physics-inspired integrated space-time Artificial Neural Networks for regional groundwater flow modeling

“…As water tables are deep in the region, recharge to the aquifer is practically negligible (Scanlon et al, 2012). Groundwater 200 discharges to streams and rivers are virtually non-existent due to the lack of hydraulic connection between surface water bodies and the aquifer within the region (Uddameri et al, 2017). Pumping is the major source of groundwater discharge.…”

“…While SPEI provides a general trend of the climate state, irrigation also depends upon the timing of the rainfall events and days with high temperatures. Substantial irrigation may be necessary even during normal and wet years, if the rainfall events do not coincide with critical plant growth stages or the region experiences higher temperatures during rapid 295 plant growth stages which considerably increase the water demand (Uddameri et al, 2017).…”