Understanding Farmers’ Forecast Use from Their Beliefs, Values, Social Norms, and Perceived Obstacles*

Abstract

Although the accuracy of weather and climate forecasts is continuously improving and new information retrieved from climate data is adding to the understanding of climate variation, use of the forecasts and climate information by farmers in farming decisions has changed little. This lack of change may result from knowledge barriers and psychological, social, and economic factors that undermine farmer motivation to use forecasts and climate information. According to the theory of planned behavior (TPB), the motivation to use forecasts may arise from personal attitudes, social norms, and perceived control or ability to use forecasts in specific decisions. These attributes are examined using data from a survey designed around the TPB and conducted among farming communities in the region of eastern Nebraska and the western U.S. Corn Belt. There were three major findings: 1) the utility and value of the forecasts for farming decisions as perceived by farmers are, on average, around 3.0 on a 0–7 scale, indicating much room to improve attitudes toward the forecast value. 2) The use of forecasts by farmers to influence decisions is likely affected by several social groups that can provide “expert viewpoints” on forecast use. 3) A major obstacle, next to forecast accuracy, is the perceived identity and reliability of the forecast makers. Given the rapidly increasing number of forecasts in this growing service business, the ambiguous identity of forecast providers may have left farmers confused and may have prevented them from developing both trust in forecasts and skills to use them. These findings shed light on productive avenues for increasing the influence of forecasts, which may lead to greater farming productivity. In addition, this study establishes a set of reference points that can be used for comparisons with future studies to quantify changes in forecast use and influence.

Crop advisors as climate information brokers: Building the capacity of US farmers to adapt to climate change

“…Second, farmers often think that climate information does not fit their needs because they perceive it to be inaccurate (spatially and temporarily) and unreliable (having high levels of uncertainty) as well as unavailable when they need it. Some farmers also point out prior negative experience with forecasts as a constraint to continued use (Ingram et al, 2002;Patt and Gwata, 2002;Artikov et al, 2006;Hu et al, 2006;Klopper et al, 2006;Vogel and O'Brien, 2006;Roncoli et al, 2009).…”

Agricultural Advisors: A Receptive Audience for Weather and Climate Information?

“…A number of studies have examined how farmers in the developed world value and use weather and climate information as a tool to manage their agricultural operations or adapt to changing weather conditions (McCrea et al 2005;Hu et al 2006;Tarnoczi and Berkes 2010;Crane et al 2010;PytlikZillig et al 2010;Hogan et al 2010;Furman et al 2011). However, few studies have specifically explored the role of agricultural advisors in using weather/climate information to help farmers make decisions (but see Buizer et al 2010).…”

Repurposing climate reconstructions for drought prediction in Southeast Asia

“…Further, seasonal prediction is a relatively new technology with which only a handful of countries have had significant experience (Hansen 2002). While there is literature documenting experience in the use of climate information in agriculture in Africa (e.g., Roncoli 2006;Klopper et al 2006;Ziervogel and Calder 2003;Roncoli et al 2009), North and South America (Lemos et al 2002;Hu et al 2006), Australia (e.g., McCrea et al 2005), and some parts of South Asia (Hansen 2002;Roncoli 2006), we failed to find comparable literature indicating access to, and use of climate information by smallholders in the countries of Southeast Asia upon which this study focuses.…”