Understanding predictions of drug effectiveness using explainable Machine Learning models

Abstract

Purpose: The analysis of absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion (ADME) molecular properties is of relevance to drug design, as they directly influence the drug’s effectiveness at its target location. This study concerns their prediction, using explainable Machine Learning (ML) models. The aim of the study is to find which molecular features are relevant to the prediction of the different ADME properties and measure their impact on the predictive model. Methods: The relative relevance of individual features for ADME activity is gauged by estimating feature importance in ML models’ predictions. Feature importance is calculated using feature permutation and the individual impact of features is measured by SHAP additive explanations. Results: The study reveals the relevance of specific molecular descriptors for each ADME property and quantifies their impact on the ADME property prediction. Conclusion: The reported research illustrates how explainable ML models can provide detailed insights about the individual contributions of molecular features to the final prediction of an ADME property, as an effort to support experts in the process of drug candidate selection through a better understanding of the impact of molecular features.