Understanding spatial patterns in rape reporting delays

Abstract

Under-reporting and delayed reporting of rape crime are severe issues that can complicate the prosecution of perpetrators and prevent rape survivors from receiving needed support. Building on a massive database of publicly available criminal reports from two US cities, we develop a machine learning framework to predict delayed reporting of rape to help tackle this issue. Motivated by large and unexplained spatial variation in reporting delays, we build predictive models to analyse spatial, temporal and socio-economic factors that might explain this variation. Our findings suggest that we can explain a substantial proportion of the variation in rape reporting delays using only openly available data. The insights from this study can be used to motivate targeted, data-driven policies to assist vulnerable communities. For example, we find that younger rape survivors and crimes committed during holiday seasons exhibit longer delays. Our insights can thus help organizations focused on supporting survivors of sexual violence to provide their services at the right place and time. Due to the non-confidential nature of the data used in our models, even community organizations lacking access to sensitive police data can use these findings to optimize their operations.

Environmental drivers of delays in reporting crimes

“…Reporting delays are shorter for suspects in the below 18 age group and for Blacks, Black Hispanics and White Hispanics. The results for age are in line with the findings by Klemmer et al . (2021) for rape in New York City and Los Angeles.…”

“…(2013), Cashmore et al . (2017) and Klemmer et al . (2021) which examine delays in reporting sexual crimes.…”

“…Cashmore et al (2017) show that delays in reporting sexual abuse affect legal action taken. Klemmer et al (2021) study reporting delays in about 9,000 rape cases in New York City and Los Angeles. They find that crimes committed involving younger victims and during holiday seasons have longer reporting delays.…”

“…(2017) show that delays in reporting sexual abuse affect legal action taken. Klemmer et al . (2021) study reporting delays in about 9,000 rape cases in New York City and Los Angeles.…”

“…Van Kirk (1978) studies reporting in Kansas City and shows that reporting delays are mainly driven by citizens seeking additional information or assurance before reporting to police. The closest papers to ours are Tasca et al (2013), Cashmore et al (2017) and Klemmer et al (2021) which examine delays in reporting sexual crimes. Tasca et al (2013) study decisions of the police in response to sexual assault reports in an Arizona city.…”