Understanding the changing nature of marine cold spells

Wang, Yuxin; Kajtar, Jules B.; Alexander, Lisa V.; Pilo, Gabriela S.; Holbrook, Neil J.

doi:10.1002/essoar.10508759.1

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Note that MCS intensity has negative values (i.e., negative SSTA). Similar to the results of (Schlegel et al, 2021a;Wang et al, 2022), the spatial pattern difference between the mean values of MHW and MCS maximum intensity (Figure 5F) is consistent with the SST variability pattern (Figure 2D).…”

Section: Spatial Patterns Of Mean and Trends Of Mhw And Mcs Character...supporting

confidence: 90%

“…Due to the destructive impacts of MHWs on marine ecosystems, biodiversity, and fisheries, most of the previous studies have focused on MHWs at regional and global scales (Selig et al, 2010;Mills et al, 2013;Frölicher and Laufkötter, 2018;Smale et al, 2019;Sen Gupta et al, 2020). The other extreme cold-water phenomena, known as marine cold-spells (MCSs) have received little attention (Schlegel et al, 2021a;Wang et al, 2022), although MCSs also have crucial negative impacts on the marine ecosystem, such as shifts in the geographic distribution of marine species, mass mortality, and coral bleaching (Schlegel et al, 2017;Tuckett and Wernberg, 2018;, As a result of anthropogenic global warming, the frequency and duration of MHW have increased globally over the last four decades (Oliver et al, 2018;, while MCS generally decreased (Schlegel et al, 2021a;Wang et al, 2022). Because MHWs are driven by long-term SST warming rather than SST variability (Oliver, 2019), MHWs are expected to become more frequent and intense over the next century Oliver et al, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Extreme marine heatwaves and cold-spells events in the Southern North Sea: classifications, patterns, and trends

Mohamed,

Barth,

Alvera-Azcárate

2023

Front. Mar. Sci.

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In this study, we examined the long-term spatiotemporal trend of marine heatwaves (MHW) and marine cold spells (MCS) characteristics in the southern North Sea over the last four decades (1982-2021). We then estimated the difference between their annual mean values and the possible relationship with the large-scale climate modes of natural sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric variability using satellite SST data. The SST warming rate was 0.33 ± 0.06°C/decade and was associated with an increase in MHW frequency (0.85 ± 0.39 events/decade) and a decrease in MCS frequency (-0.92 ± 0.40 events/decade) over the entire period. We found a distinct difference between the annual mean values of MHW and MCS characteristics, with a rapid increase in total MHW days (14.36 ± 8.16 days/decade), whereas MCS showed an opposite trend (-16.54 ± 9.06 days/decade). The highest MHW frequency was observed in the last two decades, especially in 2014 (8 events), 2020 (5 events), and 2007 (4 events), which were also the warmest years during the study period. Only two years (2010 and 2013) in the last two decades had higher MCS frequency, which was attributed to the strong negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Our results also show that on the annual scale, both the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) play a more important role in the formation of the MHW in the southern North Sea than the other teleconnections (e.g., the NAO). However, the NAO made the largest contribution only in the winter. Strong significant (p < 0.05) positive/negative correlations were found between oceanic and atmospheric temperatures and the frequency of MHW/MCS. This suggests that with global warming, we can expect an increase/decrease in MHW/MCS occurrences in the future.

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Section: Spatial Patterns Of Mean and Trends Of Mhw And Mcs Character...supporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme marine heatwaves and cold-spells events in the Southern North Sea: classifications, patterns, and trends

Mohamed,

Barth,

Alvera-Azcárate

2023

Front. Mar. Sci.

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“…As forementioned, many studies have been held on the role of changes in mean SST and SST variance in influencing MHW longterm trends (Oliver et al, 2018;Holbrook et al, 2019;Jacox, 2019;Oliver, 2019;Qi et al, 2022;Wang et al, 2022;Yao and Wang, 2022;Yao et al, 2022a;Cheng et al, 2023). However, studies concerning the ECMS remain limited, and no effective research to date has elucidated the spatio-temporal evolution of summer MHWs in response to the warming SST.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term trends and extreme events of marine heatwaves in the Eastern China Marginal Seas during summer

Xu,

Yan,

Zhang

et al. 2024

Front. Mar. Sci.

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Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are a type of widespread, persistent, and extreme marine warming event that can cause serious harm to the global marine ecology and economy. This study provides a systematic analysis of the long-term trends of MHWs in the Eastern China Marginal Seas (ECMS) during summer spanning from 1982 to 2022, and occurrence mechanisms of extreme MHW events. The findings show that in the context of global warming, the frequency of summer MHWs in the ECMS has increased across most regions, with a higher rate along the coast of China. Areas exhibiting a rapid surge in duration predominantly reside in the southern Yellow Sea (SYS) and southern East China Sea (ECS, south of 28°N). In contrast, the long-term trends of mean and maximum intensities exhibit both increases and decreases: Rising trends primarily occur in the Bohai Sea (BS) and Yellow Sea (YS), whereas descending trends are detected in the northern ECS (north of 28°N). Influenced jointly by duration and mean intensity, cumulative intensity (CumInt) exhibits a notable positive growth off the Yangtze River Estuary, in the SYS and southern ECS. By employing the empirical orthogonal function, the spatio-temporal features of the first two modes of CumInt and their correlation with summer mean sea surface temperature (SST) and SST variance are further examined. The first mode of CumInt displays a positive anomalous pattern throughout the ECMS, with notable upward trend in the corresponding time series, and the rising trend is primarily influenced by summer mean SST warming. Moreover, both of the first two modes show notable interannual variability. Extreme MHW events in the SYS in 2016 and 2018 are examined using the mixed layer temperature equation. The results suggest that these extreme MHW events originate primarily from anomalous atmospheric forcing and oceanic vertical mixing. These processes involve an anomalous high-pressure system over the SYS splitting from the western Pacific subtropical high, augmented atmospheric stability, diminished wind speeds, intensified solar radiation, and reduced oceanic mixing, thereby leading to the accumulation of more heat near the sea surface and forming extreme MHW events.

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Global Trends in Marine Heatwaves and Cold Spells: The Impacts of Fixed Versus Changing Baselines

Chiswell

2022

JGR Oceans

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Marine heatwaves (MHW) are considered to be periods when the ocean is unusually warm, and are commonly defined to occur when sea surface temperature (SST) exceeds normal values by some critical temperature threshold for some critical duration. In extreme MHW, SST can exceed normal values by as much as 3-4°C for several weeks or more. For example, Salinger et al. ( 2019) document a MHW in the eastern Tasman Sea in 2017/2018 that had a peak intensity of 3.7°C and a duration of 147 days.MHW of such magnitude and duration can have devastating impact on marine life, and the 2017/2018 Tasman Sea MHW exceeded the temperature tolerance of local kelp leading to flow-on effects in the marine ecosystem (Salinger et al., 2019;Thomsen et al., 2019). Elsewhere, similar magnitude MHW have been documented to substantially alter marine ecosystems. For example, Wernberg et al. (2013) show that biodiversity patterns of seaweeds, invertebrates, and demersal fish were significantly different after a MHW exhibiting 2-4°C anomalies persisted for more than 10 weeks along the coast of western Australia. Smale et al. (2019) document the impact of eight intense MHW showing that some sessile taxa (particularly corals) were negatively impacted, whereas other taxa were positively impacted, leading to new incursions of tropical fish into subtropical environments. In

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Understanding the changing nature of marine cold spells

Abstract: Numerous recent studies have focused on the devastating effects of discrete and prolonged extreme oceanic warm water events, also known as 'marine heatwaves' (MHWs). Such events cause devastating impacts to marine biodiversity (e.g.,

Cited by 3 publications

References 31 publications

Extreme marine heatwaves and cold-spells events in the Southern North Sea: classifications, patterns, and trends

Extreme marine heatwaves and cold-spells events in the Southern North Sea: classifications, patterns, and trends

Long-term trends and extreme events of marine heatwaves in the Eastern China Marginal Seas during summer

Global Trends in Marine Heatwaves and Cold Spells: The Impacts of Fixed Versus Changing Baselines

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