Understanding the Differences Between TOA and Surface Energy Budget Attributions of Surface Warming

Sejas, Sergio A.; Hu, Xiaoming; Cai, Ming; Fan, Hanjie

doi:10.3389/feart.2021.725816

Cited by 4 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 54 publications

(82 reference statements)

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“…In current models, it is assumed that as the planet warms, the temperature lapse rate should slightly diminish following moist adiabat (the so-called lapse rate feedback, Sejas et al, 2021). While robust across models, this feature is not, however, supported by observations that indicate an increase in the lapse rate (Figure 5).…”

Section: Global Transpirational Cooling In Global Climate Modelsmentioning

confidence: 93%

Re-appraisal of the global climatic role of natural forests for improved climate projections and policies

Makarieva

Nefiodov

Rammig

et al. 2023

Front. For. Glob. Change

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Along with the accumulation of atmospheric greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide, the loss of primary forests and other natural ecosystems is a major disruption of the Earth's system and is causing global concern. Quantifying planetary warming from carbon emissions, global climate models highlight natural forests' high carbon storage potential supporting conservation policies. However, some model outcomes effectively deprioritize conservation of boreal and temperate forests by suggesting that increased albedo upon deforestation could cool the planet. A potential conflict of global cooling vs. regional forest conservation could harm environmental policies. Here we present theoretical and observational evidence to demonstrate that, compared to the carbon-related warming, modeling skills for assessing climatic impacts of deforestation is low. We argue that estimates for deforestation-induced global cooling result from the models' limited capacity to account for the global effect of cooling from evapotranspiration of intact forests. Specifically, transpiration of trees can change the greenhouse effect via small modifications of the vertical temperature profile. However, due to their convective parameterization (which postulates a certain critical temperature profile), global climate models do not properly capture this effect. This may lead to an underestimation of warming from the loss of forest evapotranspiration in both high and low latitudes. As a result, conclusions about deforestation-induced global cooling are not robust and could result in action that immediately worsened global warming. To avoid deepening the environmental crisis, these conclusions should not inform policies of vegetation cover management, especially as studies from multiple fields are accumulating that better quantify the stabilizing impact of natural ecosystems evolved to maintain environmental homeostasis. Given the critical state and our limited understanding of both climate and ecosystems, an optimal policy with immediate benefits would be a global moratorium on the exploitation of all natural forests.

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Section: Global Transpirational Cooling In Global Climate Modelsmentioning

confidence: 93%

Re-appraisal of the global climatic role of natural forests for improved climate projections and policies

Makarieva

Nefiodov

Rammig

et al. 2023

Front. For. Glob. Change

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In current models, it is assumed that as the planet warms, the temperature lapse rate should slightly diminish following moist adiabat (the so-called lapse rate feedback, Sejas et al, 2021). This robust model feature is not, however, supported by observations (Fig.…”

Section: Global Transpirational Cooling In Global Climate Modelsmentioning

confidence: 94%

Re-appraisal of the global climatic role of natural forests for improved climate projections and policies

Makarieva¹,

Nefiodov²,

Rammig³

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Along with the accumulation of atmospheric carbon dioxide, the loss of primary forests and other natural ecosystems is a major disruption of the Earth system causing global concern. Quantifying planetary warming from carbon emissions, global climate models highlight natural forests' high carbon storage potential supporting conservation policies. However, some model outcomes effectively deprioritize conservation of boreal and temperate forests suggesting that increased albedo upon deforestation could cool the planet. Potential conflict of global cooling versus regional forest conservation could harm environmental policies. Here we present theoretical and observational evidence to demonstrate that, compared to the carbon-related warming, the model skills for assessing climatic impacts of deforestation is low. We argue that deforestation-induced global cooling results from the models' limited capacity to account for the global effect of cooling from evapotranspiration of intact forests. Transpiration of trees can change the greenhouse effect via small modifications of the vertical temperature profile.Due to their convective parameterization (which postulates a certain critical temperature profile), global climate models do not properly capture this effect. This parameterization may lead to underestimation of warming from the loss of evapotranspiration in both high and low latitidues, and therefore, conclusions about deforestation-induced global cooling are not robust. To avoid deepening the environmental crisis, these conclusions should not inform policies of vegetation cover management. Studies are mounting quantifying the stabilizing impact of natural ecosystems evolved to maintain environmental homeostasis. Given the critical state and our limited understanding of both climate and ecosystems, an optimal policy would be a global moratorium on the exploitation of all natural forests.

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“…The surface energy budgets over ocean and land are distinct (Donohoe & Battisti, 2013; Sejas et al., 2021). The heat capacity of ocean mixed layer is large, and the horizontal heat transport convergence is significant in oceans, so that the energy budget of sea surface is not always balanced (Hansen et al., 2005; Kang et al., 2023; Liu et al., 2018; Roberts et al., 2017; von Schuckmann et al., 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Conventionally, radiative forcings and feedbacks are diagnosed with the radiation fluxes at the top‐of‐atmosphere (TOA), and changes in equilibrium global mean surface temperature can be calculated based on the TOA radiative balance (Bony et al., 2006). However, the energy budget of a regional climate system is affected significantly by horizontal and vertical energy transports of the atmosphere, and the local surface temperature is not directly linked to TOA radiation anomalies, so that the surface radiation is often advantageous to analyzing how the regional surface temperature changes in response to atmospheric radiative perturbations (Andrews et al., 2009; Boeke & Taylor, 2018; Colman, 2015; Lu & Cai, 2009; Sejas et al., 2021). Moreover, changes in surface energy fluxes are directly related to changes in the hydrological cycle (Allen & Ingram, 2002; Previdi, 2010; Zhang et al., 2023) and biogeophysical cycle (Chen et al., 2022; Heyblom et al., 2022; Laguë et al., 2019; Liu et al., 2022; Luyssaert et al., 2014), and can be used to explain the different rates of temperature increase over land versus ocean (Joshi et al., 2008; Toda et al., 2023).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Contribution of Surface Radiative Effects, Heat Fluxes and Their Interactions to Land Surface Temperature Variability

Liu,

Huang,

Yuan

et al. 2024

JGR Atmospheres

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Land surface temperature anomalies can be linked to changes in local surface energy balance, although the relationship between surface temperature variability and individual radiative processes remains unclear. In this paper, we quantify the contributions of surface radiative effects and non‐radiative heat fluxes to the variance of monthly land surface temperature using European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 data and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 simulations. The surface energy budget equation is used to link changes in surface radiation, surface heat fluxes and land surface temperature. Subsequently, surface radiation is decomposed into the radiative effects of clouds, air temperature, surface albedo and relative humidity using radiative kernels. The contributions of these radiative processes, including their coupling effects, are quantified using covariance matrices. The results reveal the air temperature radiative effect to be the most significant contributor to the variability of land surface temperature. In addition, the covariance terms reveal important coupling effects. For example, the contribution from the cloud radiative effect is found to be substantially dampened by its coupling with surface heat fluxes. The air temperature radiative effect is further decomposed into a forcing component and a feedback component using different regression methods, in an attempt to separate the air temperature radiative effect as the driver of the surface temperature variability. The cloud radiative effect becomes the primary contributor to the variance of surface temperature after separating the air temperature feedback, while the contribution of the air temperature radiative forcing remains important.

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Understanding the Differences Between TOA and Surface Energy Budget Attributions of Surface Warming

Cited by 4 publications

References 54 publications

Re-appraisal of the global climatic role of natural forests for improved climate projections and policies

Re-appraisal of the global climatic role of natural forests for improved climate projections and policies

Re-appraisal of the global climatic role of natural forests for improved climate projections and policies

Contribution of Surface Radiative Effects, Heat Fluxes and Their Interactions to Land Surface Temperature Variability

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