Understanding the El Niño Costero of 2017: The Definition Problem and Challenges of Climate Forecasting and Disaster Responses

Ramírez, Iván J.; Briones, Fernando

doi:10.1007/s13753-017-0151-8

Cited by 74 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…Its duration was much shorter than previous Eastern Pacific El Niño events but SST anomalies and precipitations were nevertheless very intense. As there were no signs of anomalously high temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, the intense coastal warming and its consequences were not anticipated by the local governmental agencies or by the scientific community (Ramirez and Briones, 2017). In the present study, in agreement with Garreaud (2018), we found that the initial warming was mainly associated with a regional decrease of the winds in the far-eastern Pacific.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Forcings and Evolution of the 2017 Coastal El Niño Off Northern Peru and Ecuador

et al. 2018

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El Niño events, in particular the eastern Pacific type, have a tremendous impact on the marine ecosystem and climate conditions in the eastern South Pacific. During such events, the accumulation of anomalously warm waters along the coast favors intense rainfall. The upwelling of nutrient-replete waters is stopped and the marine ecosystem is strongly impacted. These events are generally associated with positive surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. During austral summer 2017, a strong surface temperature anomaly reaching ∼3-4 • C off Northern Peru and Ecuador led to intense coastal precipitations. However, neutral temperature anomalies were recorded in the equatorial Pacific. Using in situ measurements, satellite observations, and simulations from an eddy-resolving regional ocean circulation model, we investigated the physical processes triggering this peculiar 'coastal El Niño.' Its impact on the regional ocean circulation and heat budget off northern Peru and Ecuador was assessed. Using model sensitivity experiments, we investigated the respective roles of the equatorial Kelvin waves and local wind anomalies in driving the anomalously high nearshore sea surface temperature (SST). The atmospheric teleconnections which triggered the event were investigated using reanalysis data.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Forcings and Evolution of the 2017 Coastal El Niño Off Northern Peru and Ecuador

et al. 2018

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“…In February to April 2017 extremely warm sea surface temperatures (SST) were observed in the far eastern tropical Pacific off Peru and Ecuador, accompanied by heavy rainfalls and flooding over land. The impact on the Peruvian ecosystem and society was comparable to the strong El Niño events of 1982/1983and 1997/1998(Ramírez & Briones, 2017Rodríguez-Morata et al, 2019). Due to its serious impacts, the pronounced warming received a lot of media attention under the term "Coastal El Niño.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stand‐Alone Eastern Pacific Coastal Warming Events

Lübbecke

Rudloff

Stramma

2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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A pronounced warm anomaly occurred at the Peruvian coast in early 2017. This “Coastal Niño” caused heavy rainfalls, leading to flooding in Peru and Ecuador. At the same time, neutral conditions prevailed in the equatorial Pacific. Using observational sea surface temperature data sets and an ocean reanalysis product for the time period 1900 to 2010, previous similar events are investigated. Eighteen coastal warming events without corresponding equatorial Pacific warming are identified. Further analysis shows, however, that only four of these events are not connected to the central equatorial Pacific. All other periods of strong coastal warm anomalies are directly followed or preceded by El Niño‐like conditions. The “stand‐alone” coastal warming events are characterized by comparatively low equatorial heat content. We thus hypothesize that the depleted heat content in the equatorial Pacific in the wake of the strong 2015/2016 El Niño prevented the warming to spread westward in 2017.

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“…For reasons disclosed in the ensuing analysis, the early 2017 floods in Peru were not accompanied by many of the aforementioned atmospheric and oceanic conditions, which inspired us to pursue further exploration. This level of ambiguity in climate forcing compounded the low skill in seasonal forecasting, which hampered decision making (Ramirez and Briones 2017). The objective of this study is to diagnose the Peru floods of 2017 and to examine the possible large-scale forcing.…”

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confidence: 99%

Climate diagnostics of the extreme floods in Peru during early 2017

et al. 2019

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From January through March 2017, a series of extreme precipitation events occurred in coastal Peru, causing severe floods with hundreds of human casualties and billions of dollars in economic losses. The extreme precipitation was a result of unusually strong recurrent patterns of atmospheric and oceanic conditions, including extremely warm coastal sea surface temperatures (SST) and weakened trade winds. These climatic features and their causal relationship with the Peruvian precipitation were examined. Diagnostic analysis and model experiments suggest that an atmospheric forcing in early 2017, which was moderately linked to the Trans-Niño Index (TNI), initiated the local SST warming along coastal Peru that later expanded to the equator. In January 2017, soil moisture was increased by an unusual expansion of Amazonian rainfall. By March, localized and robust SST warming provided positive feedback to the weakening of the trade winds, leading to increased onshore wind and a subsequent enhancement in rainfall. The analysis points to a tendency towards more frequent and stronger variations in the water vapor flux convergence along the equator, which is associated with the increased precipitation in coastal Peru.

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Understanding the El Niño Costero of 2017: The Definition Problem and Challenges of Climate Forecasting and Disaster Responses

Abstract: This preliminary study examines the definition problem and challenges of climate forecasting and disaster responses associated with the El

Cited by 74 publications

References 4 publications

Forcings and Evolution of the 2017 Coastal El Niño Off Northern Peru and Ecuador

Forcings and Evolution of the 2017 Coastal El Niño Off Northern Peru and Ecuador

Stand‐Alone Eastern Pacific Coastal Warming Events

Climate diagnostics of the extreme floods in Peru during early 2017

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