Understanding the Heterogeneity of Tourists’ Choices under Climate Change Risks: A Segmentation Analysis

Abstract

This paper undertakes a data-driven segmentation analysis on tourists’ choice of island destinations in the context of a changing climate. To this end, 2528 tourists visiting ten European islands in the Mediterranean, Baltic, and Atlantic regions were posed hypothetical situations in which diverse impacts caused by CC (i.e., beach loss, heatwaves, storm intensification, etc.) were affecting the islands being visited. In each scenario, tourists’ responses ranged from stay on the island to change to an alternative destination. Cluster analysis allowed the identification of four segments: (1) LO-loyal oriented—tourists willing to stay on the island despite any climatic event (in this group, tourists would often change the travel date); (2) RA-risk-averse—tourists who would always avoid islands affected by CC; (3) WIL-risk-specific—a segment of tourists with a special aversion to the risks associated with wildlife disappearance and damage to infrastructure, and (4) 3S-sun, sea and sand seekers—tourists who would always avoid visiting islands where CC induced effects are related to beach loss or extreme events. Further analysis is dedicated to comparing segments in regard to their sociodemographic characteristics, the image of the island, and the importance given to the protection of environmental attributes when choosing an island destination. The results alert us about the climate-specific risks and tourist profiles that are relevant to explaining changes in the tourism geography and seasonality of islands. The findings are useful for providing operational marketing recommendations for destination managers, especially for taking competitive advantage of climate services, and for prevention and responsiveness management strategies.

Will Climate Change Affect the Attractiveness of Beaches? Beach Users’ Perceptions in Catalonia (NW Mediterranean)

“…Nonetheless, in this study, when jointly analyzing the three key questions, although a general moderate sensitivity is observed, we found that CC impacts may limit users' beach visits. This relates to another study in which 23% of tourists would not tolerate CC impacts on beaches, highlighting a special concern regarding the conditions in these environments above others, whereas about 30% of tourists are known to be willing to visit tourist destinations despite CC impacts [55]. Considering different CC impacts, however, very different perceptions are shown as discussed hereinafter; changes in temperature and beach area reduction appeared to be more limiting and decisive factors than water restrictions in future CC scenarios.…”

Categorizing Online Climate Change Interpretation Across the National Park System

“…In contrast, 50 units (72%) in the Southeast region had no climate change information on their webpages. Several studies point to differences among audience segmentation in regards to perceptions of climate change communication (Akerlof et al, 2011; De Urioste-Stone et al, 2016; Lam-González et al, 2021), which could be attributed to regional influences and beliefs surrounding the topic. The geography of a region itself may be a barrier to effective climate change interpretation.…”

“…Recent studies have shown that climate change has a direct impact on visitors’ travel behavior, and will continue to do so in the future (De Urioste-Stone et al, 2016; Fisichelli et al, 2015). Some sources report a visitor’s hypothetical decision to postpone or cancel their trips altogether under certain climate scenarios (Lam-González et al, 2021), while other studies point to an extension of visitor seasons with warming temperatures (Albano et al, 2013). Communicating the current and anticipated impacts of a changing climate will become increasingly vital as the phenomenon plays a stronger role in a park visitor’s trip planning considerations.…”

Impact of Heat Waves on the Redistribution of Tourist Flows: The Case of Spain

“…As climate change becomes more evident, the influence of extreme weather events on the tourism sector has become a growing field of academic research, both from the supply and demand side [10][11][12]. Thus, there is still a need to expand knowledge on tourists' resilience to climatic conditions in visited tourism destinations and their behavioral responses.…”