Understanding the Relationship between Vaccine Supply Dead Space and Wasted COVID-19 Vaccine Doses

An evaluation was conducted to predict the economic and clinical burden of vaccinating all immunocompromised (IC) individuals aged ≥30 years with mRNA-1273 variant-adapted COVID-19 vaccines versus BNT162b2 variant-adapted vaccines in Fall 2023 and Spring 2024 in France. The number of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections, hospitalizations or deaths due to COVID-19, and long COVID cases, costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were estimated using a static decision-analytic model. Predicted vaccine effectiveness (VE) were based on real-world data from the original and BA.4/5 variant-adapted vaccines, suggesting higher protection against infection and hospitalization with mRNA-1273 vaccines. VE estimates were combined with COVID-19 incidence and probability of COVID-19 severe outcomes. Uncertainty surrounding VE, vaccine coverage, infection incidence, hospitalization and mortality rates, costs and QALYs were evaluated in sensitivity analyses. In an ideal situation where 100% coverage is achieved, the mRNA-1273 variant-adapted vaccine is predicted to prevent an additional 3,882 infections, 357 hospitalizations, 81 deaths, and 326 long COVID cases when compared to BNT162b2 variant-adapted vaccines in 230,000 IC individuals. This translates to €10.1 million cost-savings from a societal perspective and 645 QALYs gained. Results were consistent across all analyses and most sensitive to variations surrounding VE and coverage. These findings highlight the importance of increasing vaccine coverage, and ability to induce higher levels of protection with mRNA-1273 formulations in this vulnerable population.

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Substantial reduction in the clinical and economic burden of disease following variant-adapted mRNA COVID-19 vaccines in immunocompromised patients in France

Lee,

Davido,

Beck

et al. 2024

Preprint

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An economic evaluation was conducted to predict the economic and clinical burden of vaccinating immunocompromised (IC) individuals aged ≥30 years with mRNA-1273 variant-adapted COVID-19 vaccines in Fall 2023 and Spring 2024 versus BNT162b2 variant-adapted vaccines in France. The number of symptomatic COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, deaths, and long COVID cases, costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) was estimated using a static decision-analytic model. Predicted vaccine effectiveness (VE) were based on real-world data from prior versions, suggesting higher protection against infection and hospitalization with mRNA-1273 vaccines. VE estimates were combined with COVID-19 incidence and probability of COVID-19 severe outcomes. Uncertainty surrounding VE, vaccine coverage, infection incidence, hospitalization and mortality rates, costs and QALYs were tested in sensitivity analyses. The mRNA-1273 variant-adapted vaccine is predicted to prevent an additional 3,882 infections, 357 hospitalizations, 81 deaths, and 326 long COVID cases when compared to BNT162b2 variant-adapted vaccines in 230,000 IC individuals. This translates to €10.1 million cost-savings from a societal perspective and 645 QALYs saved. Results were consistent across all analyses and most sensitive to variations surrounding VE and coverage. These findings highlight the importance of increasing vaccine coverage, and ability to induce higher levels of protection with mRNA-1273 formulations in this vulnerable population.

show abstract

Understanding the Relationship between Vaccine Supply Dead Space and Wasted COVID-19 Vaccine Doses

Cited by 3 publications

References 8 publications

Designing a sustainable-resilient vaccine cold chain network in uncertain environments

Designing a sustainable-resilient vaccine cold chain network in uncertain environments

Substantial reduction in the clinical and economic burden of disease following variant-adapted mRNA COVID-19 vaccines in immunocompromised patients in France

Substantial reduction in the clinical and economic burden of disease following variant-adapted mRNA COVID-19 vaccines in immunocompromised patients in France

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