Understanding the Spatially Variable Effects of Climate Change on Rice Yield for Three Ecotypes in Bangladesh, 1981–2010

Abstract

Climate change will impact on rice food security in many parts of the world, including Bangladesh. Little attention has been given to understanding the impact of climate on rice yield for three main ecotypes (Aus, Aman, and Boro) in different areas of the country. The aim of this paper was to analyse the spatiotemporal dynamics of rice yield and climatic variables and the spatially variable climate effects on rice yield for these ecotypes in Bangladesh during 1981-2010 by employing linear mixed models and generalized linear models. The results demonstrated the substantial spatiotemporal variations of rice yield for all ecotypes across the country. Rice yield for ecotypes was more susceptible to temperature changes than rainfall effects. Modelling of a 1 ∘ C temperature increase in the country showed strong regional differences in rice yield for these ecotypes. The study concludes that future temperature changes are likely to change regional rice yield for all ecotypes and hence impact food security. The results have important consequences for food security by indicating the need for appropriate region-specific adaptation measures to reduce rice yield variability in the future. The results show the need to consider spatial differences for policy development to improve food security in Bangladesh.

Exploring the nexus between natural disasters and food (in)security: Evidence from rural Bangladesh

“…In another study, Ara et al (2016) observed that rice yields in Bangladesh are negatively impacted by rising temperatures and increased rainfall. Similarly, Ara et al (2017) showed that yields for three main types of rice produced in Bangladesh are more susceptible to changes in temperature than they are to changes in rainfall. Although the impact of climate change on different types of rice is asymmetric, the Boro type is likely to be more resilient to climate change than the Aus or Aman types.…”

Impact of cropping system diversification on productivity and resource use efficiencies of smallholder farmers in south-central Bangladesh: a multi-criteria analysis

“…This is because aman season rice is grown in all field types (i.e., different landscape positions), often with different varieties and varying amounts of inputs. Other studies have reported large spatiotemporal variation for rice yield in smallholder systems of Bangladesh, even under the same varieties and fertilizer inputs (Ara et al 2017 ; Assefa et al 2021 ). In southern Bangladesh, variation in soil fertility (mostly nitrogen) and field elevation (which controls flooding depth) are important determinants of rice yield (Ara et al 2017 ; Ran et al 2018 ).…”

A Review of Food Security and the Potentials to Develop Spatially Informed Food Policies in Bangladesh

“…6b). Although the spatial variations in long-term temperature are small, the differences may influence food security across the country in the long term and are similar in magnitude to the climate changes predicted to occur during the next decades (Ara et al 2016(Ara et al , 2017.…”

“…Bangladesh is facing challenges in attaining and maintaining food security because of its large population, numbering 152 million at the last population census from 2011 (BBS 2011a). In addition, numerous drivers including poverty (Kam et al 2005), malnutrition (Bose and Dey 2007; Hossain et al 2005), frequent disasters (Mirza 2002;Ninno and Lundberg 2005), agricultural management practices (Ara et al 2016) and the effect of climate change (Karim et al 1996;Sarker et al 2012;Ruane et al 2013;Ara et al 2017) influence food security across the country (Habiba et al 2015a). …”