Understanding the use of 2015–2016 El Niño forecasts in shaping early humanitarian action in Eastern and Southern Africa

Poterie, Arielle Tozier de la; Jjemba, Wasswa Eddie; Singh, Roop; Pérez, Erin Coughlan de; Costella, Cecilia

doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.02.025

Cited by 35 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 55 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…3.5. Impact of capacity building and co-production of knowledge in the uptake of WCS Professional development of personnel working at NMHSs is a critical factor in the provision and delivery of WCS in SSA (Lamb et al 2011, WMO 2013, De La Poterie et al 2018, Hansen et al (2019). This review shows that capacity building courses provided to personnel through different projects should include: engagement in the conceptualisation of WCS to facilitate the development of forecasting products that maximise societal value; guidance on how to download outputs from global forecasting systems and cascade them to their country level, the interpretation and verification of forecasts at different timescales, training on the use of new forecast products and software, computer coding and the use of high performance computers.…”

Section: Addressing Barriersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identifying user needs for weather and climate services to enhance resilience to climate shocks in sub-Saharan Africa

Nkiaka

Taylor

Dougill

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

104

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The vulnerability of social-ecological systems in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to climate variability and change means that there is an urgent need to better integrate weather and climate information into societal decision-making processes. Long-term climate adaptation in these regions has received increasing attention, with recent initiatives aiming to increase resilience to climate change at timescales of years to decades. Less focus has been given to weather and short-term climate information. However, users are principally interested in shorter timescales (hours to seasons) where actions can immediately reduce the impacts of severe weather events. Focusing on the priority sectors of agriculture and food security, water and disaster management, this paper uses a systematic literature review approach to analyse 61 empirical case studies drawn from academic literature and projects across SSA. We identify the main users of climate services and outline current practices and reported benefits. Barriers that impede the delivery and uptake of climate services are identified and potential strategies for overcoming them outlined based on the reporting of successful practices. Our findings show that greater capacity building of personnel working for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and Agricultural Extension staff and reinforcing and sustaining collaboration between different stakeholders (climate scientists, hydrologists, extension workers, farmers and other user groups), are essential factors for improving the uptake and utility of weather and climate services to enhance resilience to climate shocks in SSA.

show abstract

Section: Addressing Barriersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identifying user needs for weather and climate services to enhance resilience to climate shocks in sub-Saharan Africa

Nkiaka

Taylor

Dougill

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

104

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…For this analysis, we used the Living Conditions Monitoring Survey (Central Statistical Office, 2017) which collected data in April/May 2015 (Central Statistical Office, 2016), well before the onset of the 2015–2016 El Niño events (Tozier et al., 2018). We compared production from Section 10 of the schedule for the close‐to‐normal crop harvested in 2014 with annualized consumption based on purchases and own production from Section 11A to infer net buyer/net seller status for each household in the survey.…”

Section: Vulnerability To Declining Maize Yields In Zambiamentioning

confidence: 99%

From bad to worse: Poverty impacts of food availability responses to weather shocks

Koo¹,

Mamun²,

Martín³

2021

Agricultural Economics

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Since Amartya Sen's famous work on Poverty and Famines, economists have understood that the impacts of food market shocks on the poor depend much more on their impacts on households’ incomes and access to food than on overall food availability, and that availability‐based policies frequently exacerbate adverse impacts on household welfare. Perhaps because household‐level impacts are not directly observable many policy makers have continued to rely on availability‐oriented policies such as export bans. In the Zambia case considered in this article, export bans imposed in response to an El Niño event appear to have greatly exacerbated the small increase in poverty resulting from the weather shock. The combination of household‐level data and crop models used in this article allows us to assess the impacts of weather and price shocks at the household level, and to evaluate the suitability of availability‐based policies for dealing with weather shocks. These analytical techniques can also help identify the households and regions adversely affected, and design policies to improve poor consumers’ access to food.

show abstract

“…Where x is the hydroclimate variable (drought indices or flow) been analyzed and y is El Niño or IOD. t is the dimensionless time-shift parameter, 𝑊 𝑥𝑦 (𝑠, 𝑡) is the cross wavelet transform of the two-time series, 𝑊 𝑥 and 𝑊 𝑦 are the sums of ranks of observations in x and y, respectively, and S is a smoothing operator, which was calculated based on the approach of Torrence and Compo 60 .…”

Section: Statistical Analysis Trends and Change Point Of Nrb's Hydroclimatementioning

confidence: 99%

Worsening Drought of Nile Basin under shift in Atmospheric Circulation, Stronger ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole

Mahmoud

Gan

Allan

et al. 2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Until now, driving mechanisms behind recurring droughts and hydroclimate variations that controls the Nile River Basin (NRB) remain not well understood. In this study, we demonstrate that recent increasing aridity of NRB is attributed to the growing influence of stronger ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), and SST gradient over the Arabian Sea (WTIO) in NRB after 1980s, which have significantly contributed to NRB’s drought severity at inter-annual to inter-decadal timescales. Further, the southward (westward) shift in stream functions and meridional (zonal) winds caused an enhancement in the blocking pattern, with strong anticyclonic waves of dry air that keeps moving into NRB, has resulted in drier NRB, where its streamflow at gauging stations have decreased from 137 to 114.1 m3/s/decade. Contrary to past findings, we show that IOD and WTIO are better predictors of the Nile streamflow than El Niño. Under the combined impact of warming and stronger WTIO and El Niño, future droughts of the NRB will worsen.

show abstract

Understanding the use of 2015–2016 El Niño forecasts in shaping early humanitarian action in Eastern and Southern Africa

Cited by 35 publications

References 55 publications

Identifying user needs for weather and climate services to enhance resilience to climate shocks in sub-Saharan Africa

Identifying user needs for weather and climate services to enhance resilience to climate shocks in sub-Saharan Africa

From bad to worse: Poverty impacts of food availability responses to weather shocks

Worsening Drought of Nile Basin under shift in Atmospheric Circulation, Stronger ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About