Understanding uncertainties in contemporary and future extreme wave events for broad-scale impact and adaptation planning

Morim, Joao; Wahl, Thomas; Vitousek, Sean; Santamaria-Aguilar, Sara; Young, Ian R.; Hemer, Mark

doi:10.1126/sciadv.ade3170

Cited by 23 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 81 publications

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“…Detailed attribution of the differences between datasets would be desirable, through understanding skill of the forcing obtained from climate model, although many uncertainty remains in the reference observations 27 . We acknowledge that, our wave product is using single-method modelling, so uncertainty arising from different global wave products should be considered when assessing coastal hazards/risk for extremes 36 . Our dataset will be of service to future research to clarify how external anthropogenic and natural forcing have influenced historical wave climate changes.…”

Section: Technical Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Historical global ocean wave data simulated with CMIP6 anthropogenic and natural forcings

Patra¹,

Dodet²,

Accensi³

2023

Sci Data

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This dataset presents historical ocean wave climate during 1960–2020, simulated using the numerical model WAVEWATCH III (WW3) forced by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations corresponding to natural-only (NAT), greenhouse gas-only (GHG), aerosol-only (AER) forcings, combined forcing (natural and anthropogenic; ALL), and pre-industrial control conditions. Surface wind at 3-hourly temporal resolution, and sea-ice area fraction at monthly frequency, from a CMIP6 model - MRI-ESM2.0 are used to force WW3 over the global ocean. Model calibration and validation of the significant wave height are carried out using inter-calibrated multi-mission altimeter data produced by the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative, with additional corroboration using ERA-5 reanalysis. The simulated dataset is assessed for its skill to represent mean state, extremes, trends, seasonal cycle, time consistency, and spatial distribution over time. Numerically simulated wave parameters for different individual external forcing scenario is not available yet. This study produces a novel database particularly useful for detection and attribution analysis to quantify the relative contributions of natural and anthropogenic forcings to historical changes.

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Section: Technical Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Historical global ocean wave data simulated with CMIP6 anthropogenic and natural forcings

Patra¹,

Dodet²,

Accensi³

2023

Sci Data

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“…In addition, swells generated by North Atlantic extratropical storms are reaching the west EU coasts (e.g., Bricheno and Wolf, 2018). Under the present climate, the world's highest 50-yr return period significant wave heights are found in the northeastern Atlantic (Morim et al, 2023).…”

Section: Projections Of Dynamic Changes In Extremesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sea Level Rise in Europe: Observations and projections

Melet,

van de Wal,

Amores

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Abstract. Sea level rise (SLR) is a major concern for Europe, where 30 million people live in the historical 1-in-100-year event flood coastal plains. The latest IPCC assessment reports provide a literature review on past and projected SLR, and their key findings are synthesized here with a focus on Europe. The present paper complements IPCC reports and contributes to the Knowledge Hub on SLR European Assessment Report. Here, the state of knowledge of observed and 21st century projected SLR and changes in extreme sea levels (ESLs) are documented with more regional information for European basins as scoped with stakeholders. In Europe, satellite altimetry shows that absolute sea level trends are on average slightly above the global mean rate, with only a few areas showing no change or a slight decrease such as central parts of the Mediterranean Sea. The spatial pattern of absolute SLR in European Seas is largely influenced by internal climate modes, especially the North Atlantic Oscillation, which varies on year-to-year to decadal timescales. In terms of relative sea level rise (RSLR), vertical land motions due to human induced subsidence and glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) are important for many coastal European regions, leading to lower or even negative RSLR in the Baltic Sea, and to large rates of RSLR for subsiding coastlines. Projected 21st century local SLR for Europe is broadly in-line with projections of GMSLR rise in most places. Some European coasts are projected to experience a relative SLR by 2100 below the projected GMSLR, such as the Norwegian coast, the southern Baltic Sea, the northern part of the UK and Ireland. A relative sea level fall is projected for the northern Baltic Sea. RSLR along other EU coasts is projected to be slightly above the GMSLR, for instance the Atlantic coasts of Portugal, Spain, France, Belgium and the Netherlands. Higher-resolution regionalized projections are needed to better resolve dynamic sea level changes especially in semi-enclosed basins, such as the Mediterranean Sea, North Sea, Baltic Sea and Black Sea. In addition to ocean dynamics, GIA and Greenland ice mass loss and associated Earth gravity, rotation and deformation effects are important drivers of spatial variations of projected European RSLR. High-end estimates of SLR in Europe are particularly sensitive to uncertainties arising from the estimates of the Antarctic ice mass loss. Regarding ESLs, the frequency of occurrence of the historical centennial event (HCE) level is projected to be amplified for most EU coasts, except along the northern Baltic Sea coasts where a decreasing probability is projected because of relative sea level fall induced by GIA. The largest HCE amplification factors are projected for the southern European Seas (Mediterranean and Iberian Peninsula coasts), while the smallest amplification factors are projected in macro-tidal regions exposed to storms and induced large surges such as the south-eastern North Sea. Finally, an emphasis is given on processes that are especially important for specific regions, such as waves, tides in the north-eastern Atlantic; vertical land motion for the European Arctic and Baltic Sea; seiches, meteo-tsunamis and medicanes in the Mediterranean Sea; non-linear interactions between drivers of coastal sea level extremes in the shallow North Sea.

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“…To build knowledge on future changes in wave climate, a growing number of global and regional wave projections have been developed and intercompared (Hemer et al, 2013;Morim et al, 2018Morim et al, , 2021Morim et al, , 2023Meucci et al, 2020;Lobeto et al, 2021). These projections are commonly based on dynamical wave models often forced by surface winds projected by climate models contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), with potential downscaling of atmospheric forcing.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of sea level changes on future wave conditions along the coasts of western Europe

Chaigneau¹,

Law-Chune²,

Melet³

et al. 2023

Ocean Sci.

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Abstract. Wind waves and swells are major drivers of coastal environment changes and coastal hazards such as coastal flooding and erosion. Wave characteristics are sensitive to changes in water depth in shallow and intermediate waters. However, wave models used for historical simulations and projections typically do not account for sea level changes whether from tides, storm surges, or long-term sea level rise. In this study, the sensitivity of projected changes in wave characteristics to the sea level changes is investigated along the Atlantic European coastline. For this purpose, a global wave model is dynamically downscaled over the northeastern Atlantic for the 1970–2100 period under the SSP5–8.5 climate change scenario. Twin experiments are performed with or without the inclusion of hourly sea level variations from regional 3D ocean simulations in the regional wave model. The largest impact of sea level changes on waves is located on the wide continental shelf where shallow-water dynamics prevail, especially in macro-tidal areas. For instance, in the Bay of Mont-Saint-Michel in France, due to an average tidal range of 10 m, extreme historical wave heights were found to be up to 1 m higher (+30 %) when sea level variations are included. At the end of the 21st century, extreme significant wave heights are larger by up to +40 % (+60 cm), mainly due to the effect of tides and mean sea level rise. The estimates provided in this study only partially represent the processes responsible for the sea-level–wave non-linear interactions due to model limitations in terms of resolution and the processes included.

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Understanding uncertainties in contemporary and future extreme wave events for broad-scale impact and adaptation planning

Cited by 23 publications

References 81 publications

Historical global ocean wave data simulated with CMIP6 anthropogenic and natural forcings

Historical global ocean wave data simulated with CMIP6 anthropogenic and natural forcings

Sea Level Rise in Europe: Observations and projections

Impact of sea level changes on future wave conditions along the coasts of western Europe

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