Understanding Uncertainties in Future Colorado River Streamflow

Vano, J. A.; Udall, B.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Brekke, L. D.; Das, Tapash; Hartmann, Holly C.; Hidalgo, Hugo G.; Hoerling, Martin P.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Morino, Kiyomi; Webb, Robert S.; Werner, Kevin; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.

doi:10.1175/bams-d-12-00228.1

Cited by 185 publications

(151 citation statements)

References 70 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

146

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…However, addressing all these uncertainty sources such as greenhouse gas emissions, GCMs, downscaling and bias correction methods, and impact evaluation models has been challenging because no efficient way exists to handle all of them. These factors have been shown to play major roles in uncertainties in projecting hydrologic response to climate changes in the Colorado River Basin, which is marked by complex terrain and water balance dominated by snowmelt in the headwaters (Vano et al, 2013). To what extent these factors influence our analysis in China that encompasses diverse climate and hydrologic regimes is not clear and should be investigated in the future.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected changes in mean and interannual variability of surface water over continental China

Leng

Tang

Huang

et al. 2014

Sci. China Earth Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Five General Circulation Model (GCM) climate projections under the RCP8.5 emission scenario were used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model to investigate the impacts of climate change on hydrologic cycle over continental China in the 21st century. The bias-corrected climatic variables were generated for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). Results showed much larger fractional changes of annual mean Evapotranspiration (ET) per unit warming than the corresponding fractional changes of Precipitation (P) per unit warming across the country, especially for South China, which led to a notable decrease of surface water variability (PE). Specifically, negative trends for annual mean runoff up to 0.33%/ year and soil moisture trends varying between 0.02% to 0.13%/year were found for most river basins across China. Coincidentally, interannual variability for both runoff and soil moisture exhibited significant positive trends for almost all river basins across China, implying an increase in extremes relative to the mean conditions. Noticeably, the largest positive trends for runoff variability and soil moisture variability, which were up to 0.41%/year and 0.90%/year, both occurred in Southwest China. In addition to the regional contrast, intra-seasonal variation was also large for the runoff mean and runoff variability changes, but small for the soil moisture mean and variability changes. Our results suggest that future climate change could further exacerbate existing water-related risks (e.g., floods and droughts) across China as indicated by the marked decrease of surface water amounts combined with a steady increase of interannual variability throughout the 21st century. This study highlights the regional contrast and intra-seasonal variations for the projected hydrologic changes and could provide a multi-scale guidance for assessing effective adaptation strategies for China on a river basin, regional, or as a whole.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected changes in mean and interannual variability of surface water over continental China

Leng

Tang

Huang

et al. 2014

Sci. China Earth Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Over the twenty-first century, temperature increases are likely to force even earlier springtime snowmelt than observed over the latter half of the twentieth century (Stewart et al 2005). By mid-twentyfirst century, the Colorado River flow could see declines in streamflow exceeding − 10% relative to 1970-1999 flows (Vano et al 2014). By 2100, northern Rio Grande flows could decline by − 25%, Middle Rio Grande flows by 35%, and below Elephant Butte Reservoir flows could decline as much as 50% (Llewellyn and Vaddey 2013).…”

Section: Future Changes In Climate and Water Resourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cascading impacts of climate change on southwestern US cropland agriculture

et al. 2018

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The interior southwest United States is one of the hottest, driest regions on the planet, yet irrigated cropland agriculture is successfully practiced where there is access to surface water and/or groundwater. Through climate change, the southwest is projected to become even hotter and drier, increasing the challenges faced by farmers across the region. We can assess the vulnerability of cropland agriculture, to assist in developing potential solutions to these challenges of warming temperatures and water scarcity. However, these types of biophysical vulnerability assessment usually generate technological or policy-level solutions that do not necessarily account for farmers' ability to respond to climate change impacts. Further, there are non-climatic factors that also threaten the future of agriculture in the region, such as population increase, loss of agricultural land, and increasing competition for depleting water resources. In this paper, we assert that to fully address how southwestern farmers may Climatic Change (2018) 148:437-450 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2220-

show abstract

“…There is high model agreement for a continued increase in temperature and evaporation in this region , which will reduce the amount of precipitation that falls as snow and decrease the amount of rainfall that enters streams (Das et al, 2011;Wi et al, 2012;Vano et al, 2014). This warming will reduce discharge volume in several southwestern streams, even if amount of precipitation is unaffected (Christensen et al, 2004;Seager et al, 2013).…”

Section: Hydrological Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Riparian trees and aridland streams of the southwestern United States: An assessment of the past, present, and future

Smith

Finch

2016

Journal of Arid Environments

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

a b s t r a c tRiparian ecosystems are vital components of aridlands within the southwestern United States. Historically, surface flows influenced population dynamics of native riparian trees. Many southwestern streams has been altered by regulation, however, and will be further affected by greenhouse warming. Our analysis of stream gage data revealed that decreases in volume of annual discharge and mean peak discharge and a shift to earlier peak discharge will occur in the Southern Rockies region of Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah. These changes will likely decrease rates of reproduction and survival of cottonwood (Populus fremontii and Populus deltoides ssp. wislizenii), Goodding's willow (Salix gooddingii), and boxelder (Acer negundo), which rely on surface flows to stimulate germination and recharge groundwater aquifers. Streams in the Central Highlands of Arizona and New Mexico will likely see reductions in annual discharge volume, which could limit reproduction and survival of the above taxa and Arizona sycamore (Platanus wrightii). These effects may be exacerbated by demands of expanding urban areas and agricultural operations, but could also be ameliorated by increasing water use efficiency and environmental mitigation. These factors must be considered, along with climate projections, when planning for conservation of riparian trees and the animal communities they support.

show abstract

Understanding Uncertainties in Future Colorado River Streamflow

Abstract: A synthesis of studies on Colorado River streamflow projections that examines methodological and model differences and their implications for water management.

Cited by 185 publications

References 70 publications

Projected changes in mean and interannual variability of surface water over continental China

Projected changes in mean and interannual variability of surface water over continental China

Cascading impacts of climate change on southwestern US cropland agriculture

Riparian trees and aridland streams of the southwestern United States: An assessment of the past, present, and future

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About