Understanding weather futures based on the past: a case of Stornoway, Outer Hebrides

Macdonald, Neil; Naylor, Simon; Bowen, James; Harvey-Fishenden, Alice; Graham, Edward

doi:10.1080/14702541.2022.2158366

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…The British Rainfall Organisation founded by George Symons in 1860 (amalgamated into the Meteorological Office in 1919) served as a representative body for early observers and published annual volumes under various titles (originally Symon's 'British Rainfall', eventually shortened to 'Rainfall') from 1861 to 1991 [19]. The majority of long records were constructed during the 1970s, including single station studies, for example, Oxford's Radcliffe Observatory (1767-1814, [20] and composite series, like that of Manchester (1765-1971, [8]), with new and old series being revisited in recent years, such as Kew [21,22], Oxford [23], Carlisle [3], Durham [23], Chatsworth House [9] and Stornoway [24]. Several long rainfall records exist for northwest England, notably the Carlisle, 1757- [3] and for Chatsworth House, 1777- [9], the 200-year index series for the English Lake District [25], and the series representative of the region developed by the Hadley Centre (HadNWEP, [10]).…”

Section: Historical Instrumental Rainfall Observations and Reconstruc...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Reassessing and Extending the Composite Rainfall Record of Manchester, Northwest England: 1786–Present

Macdonald,

Dietz

2024

Climate

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A monthly composite rainfall record for the period 1786–present representative of Manchester, northwest England is presented. The 235-year record ranks as the second-longest instrumental rainfall record available for northern England, and the fifth-longest for the UK, and contributes to a growing network of long homogenous rainfall series. A composite record is constructed, extended, and homogenised, and the record is analysed in terms of annual and seasonal variability, with a focus on extreme wet/dry events. Three primary meteorological stations in Manchester, located within 2 km of one another, form the basis of the reconstruction, with other records identified for infilling and extension based on their longevity, continuity, and proximity to the primary stations. A linear regression analysis is applied to produce a continuous record, and adjustment factors are applied to ensure homogeneity. Record homogeneity is assessed via cross-comparison with long-term records from the region (Carlisle, Chatsworth House and HadNWEP), and the methods are applied to assess relative homogeneity include the double-mass curve and Standard Normal Homogeneity tests. The Manchester record is deemed to be homogenous overall but includes two periods of increased uncertainty: 1786–1819, comprising the earliest observations and greatest number of different stations, and 1883–1911, which encompasses multi-year and multi-decadal drought events of (1883–1885 and 1890–1910) as identified by other long-term meteorological studies. The analysis of the entire record reflects long-term rainfall variability with an increasing, although not significant, trend in annual rainfall observed. Seasonally, a significant increase in winter rainfall is exhibited, in keeping with patterns observed in other regional studies. Seasonal rainfall totals are found to be highly variable at the decadal timescale. Several well-documented extreme wet (e.g., autumn 2000) and dry (e.g., summer 1976) seasons are identified, including historic events (e.g., the floods of summer 1872 and drought of summer 1887) from the less-well documented eighteenth and nineteenth centuries.

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Section: Historical Instrumental Rainfall Observations and Reconstruc...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Reassessing and Extending the Composite Rainfall Record of Manchester, Northwest England: 1786–Present

Macdonald,

Dietz

2024

Climate

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“…There has also been a move to understand not just the large events, but also how changes during quiescent or mundane phases of time can influence events when they happen. Analysis of archives continues to identify new sources; whilst commonly analysed materials, as previously discussed, are still widely used, a recent example of a new source is the use of school log-books in the Outer Hebrides for reconstructing storm impacts on communities, where few other source materials are available [94]. Historical sources and archives play an important role in helping communities understand the risks presented to them; it can help them envisage complex concepts such as extreme flood magnitudes and impacts, can help build awareness and importantly facilitate better preparedness in communities, reminding them that whilst such events may be rare, they do happen, and likely will again in the future.…”

Section: The United Kingdommentioning

confidence: 99%

Historical Data for Natural Hazard Risk Mitigation and Land Use Planning

Luino,

Barriendos,

Gizzi

et al. 2023

Land

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This paper demonstrates how historical research is a valuable tool for identifying past geological, geomorphological and climatic hazards and therefore critical for mitigating and reducing future risk. The authors describe the potential of a scientific field that straddles that of the geologist, geographer, historian and archivist. Historical records include a range of materials and sources of information, which can be very diverse; from written documents to cartographies, and from drawings to marble tombstones. They are all useful and convey important data, on the date of the event, the size of the phenomena, sometimes on ground effects, damage or magnitude. The authors discuss how to conduct historical research by providing a list of locations and how important historical documents can be found. Works that mention geological phenomena are listed, starting with the first occasional descriptions by individuals in letters, up to very specific publications in individual fields of interest. With this introduction, the editors of the Special Issue wish to draw attention to the importance of historical documentation, which is too often ignored or considered of low priority by the scientific community, but can contain key information on events, their impacts and social and cultural adaptations.

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The Marion Newbigin Prize 2024 for contributions to the Scottish Geographical Journal in 2023

Philo,

Hurst,

Laurie

et al. 2024

Scottish Geographical Journal

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Understanding weather futures based on the past: a case of Stornoway, Outer Hebrides

Cited by 3 publications

References 48 publications

Reassessing and Extending the Composite Rainfall Record of Manchester, Northwest England: 1786–Present

Reassessing and Extending the Composite Rainfall Record of Manchester, Northwest England: 1786–Present

Historical Data for Natural Hazard Risk Mitigation and Land Use Planning

The Marion Newbigin Prize 2024 for contributions to the Scottish Geographical Journal in 2023

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