Unemployment and mortality in post-war Scotland

Forbes, John F.; McGregor, Alan

doi:10.1016/0167-6296(84)90013-4

Cited by 68 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…Brenner found with the help of time-series analysis that recessions are associated with deteriorating health in the United States, England and Wales and Sweden. Others have failed to find analogous evidence in a replication of his work on other countries or time-periods (Forbes and McGregor 1984;Wagstaff 1985;Joyce and Mocan 1993). The major advantage of Ruhm's (2000) analysis of the effect of unemployment rates on mortality rates in US states over the period 1972-1991 is the use of panel data.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“Recessions lower (some) mortality rates: evidence from Germany”

Neumayer

2004

Social Science & Medicine

161

211

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In his article with the provocative title "Are Recessions Good for Your Health?", Ruhm (2000) has found robust and consistent evidence that the total mortality rate, agespecific mortality rates as well as most specific mortality causes are pro-cyclical. His finding that high unemployment rates are associated with lower mortality and vice versa stands in stark contrast to Brenner's earlier work, who found the opposite effect, possibly after a time lag. Ruhm controls for state-specific effects in a panel of US states over the period 1972 to 1991, whereas Brenner's work is based on time-series analysis.Extending and improving upon Ruhm's original analysis, we analyse the effect of state unemployment and economic growth rates on mortality in the states of Germany over the period 1980 to 2000, both in a static and a dynamic econometric model. Controlling for state-specific effects, we find evidence that aggregate mortality rates for all age groups taken together as well as most specific age groups are lower in recessions. The same is true for mortality from cardiovascular diseases, pneumonia and influenza, motor vehicle accidents and suicides, but not necessarily for other specific mortality causes. In particular, there never is a statistically significant effect on homicides, other external effects and malignant neoplasms. There are also few differences apparent between the effect on male and female mortality. If we do not control for state-specific effects, then we often arrive at the opposite result with higher unemployment being associated with higher mortality. This suggests that a failure to control for time-invariant state-specific effects leads to omitted variable bias, which would erroneously suggest that mortality rates move counter-cyclically. Overall, we can confirm Ruhm's main finding for 2 another country: recessions lower some, but not all, mortality rates in the case of Germany.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“Recessions lower (some) mortality rates: evidence from Germany”

Neumayer

2004

Social Science & Medicine

161

211

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“…Early studies of the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and CVD mortality primarily used economic indicators such as per capita gross domestic product (GDP) or unemployment as proxies for economic conditions or instability and examined data using time series analyses (18,19,46,51,159). Some studies indicated a potential positive relationship between economic conditions and heart disease mortality, but in many cases, these were highly sensitive to model specifications and hypothesized lag times.…”

Section: Macroeconomic Factors and Cvdmentioning

confidence: 99%

Social Determinants and the Decline of Cardiovascular Diseases: Understanding the Links

Harper

Lynch

Smith

2011

Annu. Rev. Public Health

145

136

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This article reviews the historical declines in cardiovascular mortality and provides an overview of the contribution of social and economic factors to disease change. We document the magnitude of declines in cardiovascular diseases and the major role of changes in conventional risk factors, and we review the contributions of social determinants to changes in disease rates. We conclude by arguing that understanding patterns and trends of social inequalities in cardiovascular disease and its risk factors requires consideration of the specific intersections of health and social exposures acting across the life course in different settings, in both time and place. 39

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“…First, subsequent research has noted serious technical flaws in the methods used (Gravelle, Hutchinson, and Stern 198 1;Kasl 1979;Wagstaff 1985), and studies correcting the problems fail to replicate the findings (e.g., Forbes and McGregor 1984;Joyce and Mocan 1993;McAvinchey 1988). Second, any lengthy time series is likely to contain omitted determinants of health that are spuriously correlated with macroeconomic fluctuations.…”

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confidence: 99%

A healthy economy can break your heart

2007

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Abstract:Panel data methods are used to investigate how deaths from coronary heart disease (CHD) in the United States vary with macroeconomic conditions. A one-percentage-point reduction in unemployment is predicted to raise CHD mortality by 0.75%, corresponding to almost 3,900 additional fatalities. The increase in relative risk is similar across age groups, implying that senior citizens account for most of the extra deaths. Direct evidence is obtained of a role for decreases in medical interventions treating coronary problems. CHD mortality increases rapidly when the economy strengthens but returns to or near its baseline level within five years for most groups. Article:Does mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD) fall when macroeconomic conditions strengthen? The answer to this question may seem obvious. Heart disease is the leading source of death in the United States (Anderson and Smith 2005), and CHD, its most important component, is highly responsive to both environmental and individual risk factors. Because economic upturns are believed to reduce social and psychological hardship, health might be expected to improve and CHD mortality to decrease (Brenner and Mooney 1983;Catalano 1991). Moreover, widely cited investigations of aggregate time-series data covering the 1930s through the 1970s suggest reductions in CHD fatalities during periods of falling unemployment (Brenner 1971(Brenner , 1979Bunn 1979). However, these results are probably wrong. Evidence presented here suggests that mortality from heart disease rises when the economy expands and that this rise in heart-disease mortality is entirely due to increased CHD deaths.

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Unemployment and mortality in post-war Scotland

Cited by 68 publications

References 17 publications

“Recessions lower (some) mortality rates: evidence from Germany”

“Recessions lower (some) mortality rates: evidence from Germany”

Social Determinants and the Decline of Cardiovascular Diseases: Understanding the Links

A healthy economy can break your heart

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