Unemployment Convergence in Central and Eastern European Countries: Driving Forces and Cluster Behavior

Cuestas, Juan Carlos; Monfort, Mercedes; Ordóñez, Javier

doi:10.1080/1540496x.2015.1011537

Cited by 7 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…Also, significant inflation rate differentials within an integrated monetary area can be seen as divergences in the path of competitiveness, and hence is a useful way to test for asymmetric shocks, as exchange rate policy is no longer available to depreciate the currency and encourage exports. Nevertheless, there are other ways to test for the possibility of asymmetric shocks than using inflation differentials, (see, Belke et al ., ; and Cuestas et al ., , among others).…”

Section: Background and Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 90%

Inflation convergence in Central and Eastern Europe vs. the Eurozone: Non‐linearities and long memory

Cuestas

Gil-Alana

Taylor

2016

Scottish J Political Eco

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In this paper we consider inflation rate differentials between seven Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) and the Eurozone. We test for convergence in the inflation rate differentials, incorporating non-linearities in the autoregressive parameters, fractional integration with endogenous structural changes, and also consider club convergence analysis for the CEECs over the period 1997 to 2015 based on monthly data. Our empirical findings suggest that the majority of countries experience non-linearities in the inflation rate differential, however there is only evidence of a persistent difference in some countries. Complementary to this analysis we apply the Phillips and Sul (2007) test for club convergence and find that there is evidence that most of the CEECs converge to a common steady state.

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Section: Background and Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 90%

Inflation convergence in Central and Eastern Europe vs. the Eurozone: Non‐linearities and long memory

Cuestas

Gil-Alana

Taylor

2016

Scottish J Political Eco

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“…The scientists used nonlinear transition econometric models and found different regimes of behavior unemployment rate and labor force participation over the business cycle phases. Cuestas, Monfort and Ordóñez (2015) applied a nonlinear logistic smooth transition autoregression system to study common forces that affect the cyclical pattern of unemployment rates in Central and Eastern Europe. They identified convergence clubs in unemployment dynamics and institutional divergences among countries.…”

Section: Labor Force Participationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Labor force participation in Eastern European countries: nonlinear modeling

Oliskevych

Lukianenko

2019

JES

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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the behavior peculiarities of the labor force participation in Eastern European countries. Design/methodology/approach The authors provide the analysis of nonlinearity in dynamics of economic active population and perform the econometric analysis using logistic smooth transition autoregressive models that are flexible and capture various kinds of behavior for different modes. The paper investigates labor markets of six Eastern European countries, Hungary, Bulgaria, Poland, Slovakia, Romania and Croatia that are characterized by lower level of labor force participation rate (LFPR) than average level in EU. Findings The results of modeling quantitatively characterize smooth changes in the behavior modes of labor force activity for each country and indicate how population economic activity depends on previous labor market states. The estimated slope parameters that determine the smoothness of transition between regimes show that, in all countries, the labor force participation quite quickly reacts to changes that occurred on the labor market in the past. During recession periods, households of European countries that joint EU last decade in order to prevent the depletion of their total income increased labor supply and showed increased activity in job search. Originality/value This paper indicates the nonlinearity and asymmetry in LFPR in transition economies, discovers variety of its dynamics in the different regimes and determines the indicators that cause the change of the population economic activity behavior in each country.

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“…There are also multiple approaches when modelling these two variables (i.e., unemployment rate and fertility rate) including those based on cross-section, time series and panel data. Focusing on time series, the literature on modelling unemployment is very extensive and most authors agree that unemployment is a highly persistent variable, supporting the hypothesis of hysteresis at least in the European case (Blanchard and Summers, 1986;Chang 2011;García-Cintado et al, 2015;Munir and Ching, 2015;Cuestas et al, 2015;Caporale and Gil-Alana, 2018;etc. ).…”

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confidence: 87%

“…In Eastern European countries when deciding whether to have children the type of employment and the general stability of the family economy is taken into account. In contrast, in other more advanced countries, once the woman enjoys more privileges and higher salaries, it is she who ultimately makes this decision (Cuestas et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Unemployment and Fertility: A Long Run Relationship

2020

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The paper examines the relationship between the unemployment rate and the fertility rate in a number of European countries along with Japan and the US. We use fractional integration and cointegration techniques to establish this long run relationship. The analysis shed some light on the degree of persistence of the series, and on whether policy actions are required for highly persistent series. The evidence suggests that these two variables (unemployment and fertility rates) are not related in the long run. However, in the short run, assuming that unemployment rate is weakly exogenous, the coefficient relating the two variables is found to be negative in four countries: the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and the US.

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Unemployment Convergence in Central and Eastern European Countries: Driving Forces and Cluster Behavior

Cited by 7 publications

References 34 publications

Inflation convergence in Central and Eastern Europe vs. the Eurozone: Non‐linearities and long memory

Inflation convergence in Central and Eastern Europe vs. the Eurozone: Non‐linearities and long memory

Labor force participation in Eastern European countries: nonlinear modeling

Unemployment and Fertility: A Long Run Relationship

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