Unemployment Exits Before and During the Crisis

García, Amparo Nagore; Soest, Arthur van

doi:10.1111/labr.12103

Cited by 10 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…Previous empirical studies confirm that the observed uneven impacts of recessions on unemployment are explained by personal (De la Rica and Rebollo-Sanz, 2017;García and Soest, 2017;Hoynes et al, 2012;Theodossiou and Zangelidis, 2009), job-related (Adams-Prassl et al, 2020;Fana et al, 2020;Doran and Fingleton, 2016;Bachmann et al, 2015;Baussola et al, 2015) and regional characteristics (Cappelli et al, 2020;Kartseva and Kuznetsova, 2020;Cho and Newhouse, 2013). Herein, we used four multi-level determinants, gender, education and job-specific skills, regional context and work contract.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Literature related to the impact of human capital on job-stability during the Great Recession (e.g. García and Soest, 2017;Doran and Fingleton, 2016;Hoynes et al, 2012) confirmed that less-educated workers are more vulnerable to economic shocks and that the highly educated workers exhibit greater resilience due to an enhanced ability to adapt to changes in declining sectors to expanding ones and their increased learning abilities. In the Portuguese context, Passinhas and Proença (2020) stated that more educated workers were more protected from unemployment during a financial crisis.…”

Section: Human Capitalmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The second is the firms' perceptions (often stereotypes) on productivity regarding different demographic groups. Additionally, the idiosyncratic nature of the crisis and industry-specific labour market functioning and regulations may also exert notable bias on the distribution of the negative impacts amongst distinct groups (García and Soest, 2017;Cho and Newhouse, 2013).…”

Section: Ijchm 335mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Evidence from recent economic recessions has shown that unemployment rates increased more for men than for women, but this effect is influenced by the differences in the industry's gender composition (Albanesi and S ahin, 2018;Cho and Newhouse, 2013;Peir o et al, 2012). For example, in the previous 2008-2013 financial crisis, the gender unemployment gap was narrowed in some countries (De la Rica and Rebollo-Sanz, 2017;García and Soest, 2017;S ahin et al, 2010), including Portugal (Passinhas and Proença, 2020). This effect is mainly because the economic downturn affected more male workforce sectors, such as construction and finance.…”

Section: Ijchm 335mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Vulnerability to COVID-19 unemployment in the Portuguese tourism and hospitality industry

Lopes

Sargento

Carreira

2021

IJCHM

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Purpose This paper aims to address the immediate effects of the COVID-19 crisis in the Portuguese tourism and hospitality industry by examining whether some specific characteristics make people more vulnerable or more immune to unemployment. Design/methodology/approach Using an extensive micro-level data set of personal and job-related attributes containing all unemployed individuals in the Portuguese tourism and hospitality industry, a logit model with 56,142 observations is estimated to assess how each characteristic contributed to the unemployment odds during the COVID-19 crisis (until the end-July 2020), relatively to the pre-COVID period. Findings The most vulnerable workers to COVID-19 unemployment seem to be older, less educated, less qualified, women and residents in regions with a higher concentration of people and tourism activity. Moreover, the COVID-19 crisis is generating a new type of unemployment by also affecting those who were never unemployed before, with more stable jobs and more motivated at work, while reducing voluntary disruptions. Practical implications Public effort should be made not only to increase workforce education but especially to reinforce job-specific skills. The COVID-19 crisis has broken traditional protective measures against unemployment and separated workers from their desired occupations, which justifies new and exceptional job preservation measures. Policy recommendations are given aiming at strengthening worker resilience and industry competitiveness in the most affected sub-sectors and regions. Originality/value This study extends the current understanding of worker vulnerability to economic downturns. Herein, this paper used a three-level approach (combining socio-demographic, work-related and regional factors), capturing the immediate effects of the COVID-19 crisis and focussing on the tourism and hospitality industry (the hardest-hit sector worldwide).

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Human Capitalmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Ijchm 335mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Ijchm 335mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Vulnerability to COVID-19 unemployment in the Portuguese tourism and hospitality industry

Lopes

Sargento

Carreira

2021

IJCHM

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“…Concerning gender, the observed unemployment gender gap (the difference between female and male unemployment rates), which is commonly unfavorable to women, narrowed during the previous recession. This result was attributable to a higher increase in male unemployment rates, which, in turn, is explained by the fact that, in the most hard-hit sectors (e.g., construction and finance), the male workforce prevails (Passinhas and Proença 2020, for the Portuguese case; Cho and Newhouse 2013; De la Rica and Rebollo-Sanz 2017; García and Soest 2017). The recent studies on the COVID-19 impact unveiled an inverse gender result.…”

Section: Theoretical Backgroundmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional Heterogeneity in the Individual Unemployment Vulnerability After COVID-19 Outset

Lopes

Sargento

2023

International Regional Science Review

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The COVID-19 crisis increased unemployment all over the World, with significant regional heterogeneity. This paper intends to analyze this territorial heterogeneity for the Portuguese case and investigate which regional factors complement personal and job characteristics in explaining individual vulnerability to COVID-19 unemployment. By considering personal, job and regional dimensions, we extended the literature and provided a more comprehensive understanding of this new phenomenon in the immediate and medium-term. Furthermore, this knowledge is essential to support policy suggestions for quick and effective action in preventing job losses in the current and future crises. Detailed information on all individuals that lost their jobs in Portugal 1 year after (and before) the COVID-19 outset was used to estimate three logit models that compare the odds of losing a job after and during the pandemic. Significant territorial heterogeneity of the COVID-19 impact on unemployment is obtained. Along with personal and job characteristics, we conclude that regional characteristics are essential for explaining individual vulnerabilities. In particular, workers are more prompted to lose their jobs if they live in regions with higher population densities, lower pre-crisis unemployment, and more dependable international flow. Conversely, individual and regional human capital investment contributes to protecting employment, revealing the existence of external effects.

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Calendar effects in daily aggregate employment creation and destruction in Spain

Conde‐Ruiz

García

Puch

et al. 2019

SERIEs

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In this paper, we discuss the time series properties of a novel daily series of aggregate employment creation and destruction as registered by the Social Security in Spain. We focus on the period of economic recovery after the 2012 Labour Market Reform. Our concern for high-frequency data is motivated by the recent upsurge of labour contracts of a very short duration, which seems to have exacerbated the spikes in employment flows over the calendar year. First, we identify calendar effects in job flows and single out the Monday effect: an overreaction in job creation at the beginning of the workweek. Then, we investigate the importance of calendar effects for aggregate employment dynamics. We find that the employment growth rate shows a systematic decrease by the end of each month, which is more pronounced during the second half of the year, and it intensifies as the economy moves further along the expansion period. Finally, we use the flow of contract records at the micro-level (several millions) to evaluate how the occupational structure determines employment spikes. Our findings indicate that short-term contracts are highly prevalent in occupations under stronger calendar effects. In particular, we show that temporary workers' contracts are the most important source of the Monday effect. Keywords Employment flows • Fixed-term contracts • Calendar effects • Business cycle fluctuations • Sectoral composition • Regime shifts JEL Classification J23 • E24 • C22 We thank Israel Arroyo, Floren Felgueroso, Marcel Jansen and Juan Jimeno for insightful discussions, as well as seminar participants at Fedea and Universidad de Málaga. We also thank two reviewers and the editor for their suggestions. Finally, we thank Fedea for the access to the SEPE data, and the Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (Grant ECO2016-76818) and the Bank of Spain (Grant Excelencia 2016-17) for their financial support.

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Unemployment Exits Before and During the Crisis

Cited by 10 publications

References 59 publications

Vulnerability to COVID-19 unemployment in the Portuguese tourism and hospitality industry

Vulnerability to COVID-19 unemployment in the Portuguese tourism and hospitality industry

Regional Heterogeneity in the Individual Unemployment Vulnerability After COVID-19 Outset

Calendar effects in daily aggregate employment creation and destruction in Spain

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