Unintended but not unanticipated consequences

Abstract

The concept Bunanticipated consequences,^coined by Robert K. Merton (1936), has largely been replaced in current social science by its putative synonym, Bunintended consequences.^This conflation suggests that Bunintended^consequences are also Bunanticipated,^effectively obscuring an interesting and real category of phenomena-consequences that are both unintended and anticipated-that warrant separate attention. The first part of this article traces the conflation of Bunintended^and Bunanticipated,^and explains why it occurred. The second part argues the need for a clear distinction between what is unintended and what is unanticipated, and it illustrates the failure of the present concept of Bunintended consequences^to do so and the consequences that has for social and political analysis.

The ‘Oops!’ of EU Engagement Abroad: Analyzing Unintended Consequences of EU External Action

“…Hence, we can speak of unanticipated, unexpected and expected unintended consequences (Baert, , pp. 204–205; de Zwart, ). A parallel can be drawn here with the ‘known knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns’ phrase, widely used in public discourse and scholarship across disciplines.…”

“…Bottom line: Unintended consequences are not by definition unknown to the actor initiating the action. This is an important clarification because anticipated unintended consequences often concern controversial and politically sensitive issues and ‘the connotation of “unanticipated” that sticks to “unintended” makes it possible to expose, discuss, or correct such issues without imputing blame or getting into painful discussions about responsibility’ (de Zwart, , p. 294).…”

“…A theory of bounded rationality, initially proposed in economics, has long transpired disciplinary boundaries (Simon, ). On the other hand, in the case of political actors, and the EU in particular, one should not readily presume ignorance: it is their job to ‘specialise in anticipation’ (de Zwart, , p. 292). Although some unintended consequences are fairly unpredictable or ‘un‐anticipatable’, most are (or at least should have been) predicted and anticipated and are often simply the result of a failure to see the wider picture; which brings us to the next cause of unintended consequences – error.…”

Mellan kunskap och politik : Kvalitetssystem och offentlig kunskapsstyrning i hälso- och sjukvården

“…Förekomsten av sådana oavsiktliga konsekvenser har diskuterats under lång tid inom det historisk institutionella perspektivet (Pierson, 2004). Trots det, finns det med några få undantag, studier som på allvar försökt kontextualisera och förklara begreppet (de Zwart, 2015;6, 2014;Merton, 1936). Pierson (2004) menar att oavsiktliga konsekvenser behöver synliggö-ras i institutionella utvecklingsprocesser och inkluderas i analyserna.…”

“…Oavsiktliga konsekvenser är ett diffust och oklart begrepp (de Zwart, 2015). En precisering är därför nödvändig.…”