Unintended Consequences of Disaster Mitigation: A Systematic Review of the Safe Development Paradox

Abstract

Hydrological disasters pose significant threats worldwide, often resulting in extensive damage to society and the environment. Conventional risk mitigation approaches often overlook complex human-water system interactions, leading to adverse socio-hydrological phenomena, such as paradoxical dynamics and unintended consequences. One notable phenomenon is the safe development paradox (SDP), wherein risk reduction efforts paradoxically increase vulnerability in the long run. Despite theoretical progress, empirical investigations of these phenomena remain fragmented. In this systematic review spanning 2001 to 2023, we analysed 94 studies to synthesize research in this field. Our analysis revealed that most studies provided evidence confirming the existence of the SDP and its sub-phenomena, the levee effect. While quantitative methods (e.g. spatial analysis) are prevalent, a limited number of articles employ qualitative and mixed-methods approaches to investigate these phenomena. Studies often focus on the exposure of communities to hydrological risks, but they fall short of capturing other critical dimensions, such as vulnerability and the psychological effects of feeling safe. A more holistic assessment of the SDP should thus include aspects such as preparedness, vulnerability, and risk perception. This holistic approach would enable a better understanding of the diversity of scenarios where the SDP can manifest, providing policymakers with essential information to prevent adverse effects.