Unintended Consequences of Politically Popular Sentencing Policy: The Homicide Promoting Effects of “Three Strikes” in U.S. Cities (1980–1999)*

Abstract

Research Summary:Using panel data from 188 large cities during 1980-1999, we examined the possible homicide promoting effects of "three-strikes" laws. Results indicated that cities in states with three-strikes laws experienced short-term increases in homicide rates of 13% to 14% and longterm increases of 16% to 24% compared with cities in states without the laws. Policy Implications:Our results emphasize the fact that rarely are the possible unintended negative consequences of policy directives considered and point to the need for policy makers to consider both intended and unintended consequences of policy directives before the directives are codified.Intuitively, most people, and lately most legislators, presume that lengthy imprisonment, determinate sentencing, mandatory minimum sentencing, and severe habitual offender laws offer safety along with retribution. But as criminologists and other social scientists have often shown, intuition alone isn't a sound basis for judging what will or won't work, at what cost, and with what side effects [emphasis added] (Skolnick, 1995:3). Facing intense public pressure to address the problem of high violent crime rates in the late 1980s and early 1990s, policy makers responded by strengthening existing laws targeting repeat offenders. Between 1993 and 1996, a total of 25 states and the federal government enacted what are * We thank Thomas Marvel1 and Francis T. Cullen for their encouragement and assistance with this project, but note that we alone bear responsibility for any errors remaining in the paper. Send correspondence to Tomislav V. Kovandzic,

The bluntness of incarceration: crime and punishment in Tallahassee neighborhoods, 1995 to 2002

“…County level estimates are on average lower than state level estimates, which in turn are lower than national level estimates [2,3,5,36]. While a strong negative relationship is present at the national level, this relationship mostly disappears at the county level [32,33].…”

“…They find that incarceration decreases crime but less so as the scale of incarceration increases. Kovandzic et al [32], Kovandzic and Vieraitis [33], and Kovandzic et al [34] provide evidence in support of the critical perspective at the city and county level. Clear et al [13] directly test the coercive mobility at the neighborhood level and also find some limited support for it.…”

Selectively Incapacitating Frequent Offenders: Costs and Benefits of Various Penal Scenarios

“…To the degree selective policies attain greater general and specific deterrence, a focus on just the incapacatative effects of selective policy underestimates the benefits of these selective policies (Shepherd 2002). However, to the extent implementation of a selective policy leads to a 'hardening' of crime-offenders facing long-term incapacitation going to extremes to avoid detection, even if for example this would mean they would have to kill for it (Kovandzic et al 2002;Marvell and Moody 2001;Shafer 1999)-a focus on incapacitation may in turn overestimate selective policies ultimate benefits. The model further assumes that others-who would not otherwise have offended-do not replace the incarcerated offenders.…”

An analysis of the relationship between probation caseloads and property crime rates in California counties

“…Census data permitted lower levels of analysis, but because this study contained data collected in yearly increments (as opposed to every ten years as in the census), the authors were forced to ''move up'' to the county-level. Some researchers used a technique called ''linear interpolation'' to ''fill in'' the annual gaps in census data (e.g., Kovandzic et al, 2002), but the authors of this article did not favor such an approach.…”

“…Recent studies showed that the ratio of police officers to citizens had an inverse effect on the crime rate (e.g., Kovandzic, Sloan, & Vieraitis, 2002;Marvell & Moody, 1996). As many, if not more, studies showed that police levels and the crime rate operated independently of one another (e.g., Loftin & McDowall, 1982).…”