United States Historically Climatology Network Daily Temperature, Precipitation, and Snow Data for 1871-1997

Easterling, David R.; Karl, T.; Lawrimore, J.; Greco, S. Del; Kaiser, Dale P.; Allison, Linda

doi:10.2172/1157067

Cited by 46 publications

(30 citation statements)

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“…Changes in climate were examined by using daily weather data from two local stations chosen for their proximity to our study sites, for the length and completeness of their records, and because they span the elevation gradient of the Green Mountains: (i) Historical climate network (HCN) (available from http:// www.ncdc.noaa.gov/) data from Burlington International Airport, located in the Champlain Valley just to the west of the Green Mountains (100.6 m elevation, 44°28Ј N, 73°09Ј W); HCN datasets are intended for the study of decade-and century-scale climate trends and have been corrected for changes in station location, time of observation bias, and urban heat effects (47,48); (ii) National Climatic Data Center data from the summit of Mount Mansfield (1,204.0 m elevation, 44°32Ј N, 72°49Ј W), located just north of Bolton Mountain. Daily mean temperatures were calculated as the mean of daily maximum and minimum temperature.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A rapid upward shift of a forest ecotone during 40 years of warming in the Green Mountains of Vermont

Beckage

Osborne

Gavin

et al. 2008

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

410

325

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Detecting latitudinal range shifts of forest trees in response to recent climate change is difficult because of slow demographic rates and limited dispersal but may be facilitated by spatially compressed climatic zones along elevation gradients in montane environments. We resurveyed forest plots established in 1964 along elevation transects in the Green Mountains (Vermont) to examine whether a shift had occurred in the location of the northern hardwood-boreal forest ecotone (NBE) from 1964 to 2004. We found a 19% increase in dominance of northern hardwoods from 70% in 1964 to 89% in 2004 in the lower half of the NBE. This shift was driven by a decrease (up to 76%) in boreal and increase (up to 16%) in northern hardwood basal area within the lower portions of the ecotone. We used aerial photographs and satellite imagery to estimate a 91-to 119-m upslope shift in the upper limits of the NBE from 1962 to 2005. The upward shift is consistent with regional climatic change during the same period; interpolating climate data to the NBE showed a 1.1°C increase in annual temperature, which would predict a 208-m upslope movement of the ecotone, along with a 34% increase in precipitation. The rapid upward movement of the NBE indicates little inertia to climatically induced range shifts in montane forests; the upslope shift may have been accelerated by high turnover in canopy trees that provided opportunities for ingrowth of lower elevation species. Our results indicate that high-elevation forests may be jeopardized by climate change sooner than anticipated.climate change ͉ range shift G lobal climate is currently warming at an unprecedented rate with potentially profound and widespread effects on the distributions of ecological communities. Mean global temperature rose by 0.6°C over the past century, the rate of warming since 1976 has been greater than any other period during the last 1,000 years, and the decade 1990-1999 was the hottest in recorded history (1, 2). Recent climate change has been driven primarily by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), and warming is likely to continue at the same or an accelerated rate for the foreseeable future (3-6): global temperatures are predicted to rise by another 1.4-5.8°C by the year 2100 (7). Climate is an important determinant of species' ranges, and rising temperatures associated with GHG emissions are predicted to lead to species' migrations poleward or upward in elevation (8-10). Climate-linked range shifts have already been observed in some taxa (11,12). Although forest composition and geographic distributions of canopy trees are expected to shift with global warming, it is not clear what level of inertia, or time lag, forests will display to climatic forcing nor how strong the relationship will be between warming and tree line rise (13-15). Historical reconstructions and models of forest response to climate change suggest that the natural pace of tree recruitment and canopy turnover result in century-scale responses of ecotones to climate change, which could ma...

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A rapid upward shift of a forest ecotone during 40 years of warming in the Green Mountains of Vermont

Beckage

Osborne

Gavin

et al. 2008

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

410

325

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…The four time periods were through 1919, 1920-1949, 1950-1979, and 1980-2009. Weather stations were selected for their long-term quality based on criteria such as consistent observation times, low potential for heat-island bias, and other quality assessments (Robeson 2002;Easterling et al 1999). More details on the data quality are provided in supplementary material (S.1).…”

Section: Data and Statistical Techniques Used In The Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term spatial and temporal trends in frost indices in Kansas, USA

et al. 2013

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Frost indices such as number of frost days (nFDs), number of frost-free days (nFFDs), last spring freeze (LSF), first fall freeze (FFF), and growing-season length (GSL) were calculated using daily minimum air temperature (T min ) from 23 centennial weather stations across Kansas during four time periods (through 1919, 1920-1949, 1950-1979, and 1980-2009). A frost day is defined as a day with T min <0°C. The long-and short-term trends in frost indices were analyzed at monthly, seasonal, and annual timescales. Probability of occurrence of the indices was analyzed at 5 %, 25 %, 50 %, 75 %, and 95 %. Results indicated a general increase in T min from 1900 through 2009 causing a decrease in nFDs. LSF and FFF occurred earlier and later than normal in the year, respectively, thereby resulting in an increase in GSL. In general, northwest Kansas recorded the greatest nFD and lowest T min , whereas southeast Kansas had the lowest nFD and highest T min ; however, the magnitude of the trends in these indices varied with location, time period, and time scales. Based on the long-term records in most stations, LSF occurred earlier by 0.1-1.9 days/decade, FFF occurred later by 0.2-0.9 day/decade, and GSL was longer by 0. 1-Climatic Change (2013) 120:169-181

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“…Climatic layers used were annual mean temperature and annual precipitation, obtained from the WorldClim database (Hijmans et al 2005), using the 30 00 , 2.5 0 , 5 0 , and 10 0 resolution products to match 1 km, 5 km, 10 km, and 20 km resolutions, respectively; for the v www.esajournals.org 50 km resolution, we scaled the values up with the mean of the 10 0 raster layers using a bilinear interpolation from nearest neighbor cells. Because other climatic factors, particularly freezing temperatures and sunny days, can be important limiting factors for the mistletoe, we tested models with two other variables estimated directly from weather-station data (Easterling et al 1999) for a 20-yr period (number of continuous days of freezing temperatures and number of continuous rainless days). Because models resulting showed similar or lower performance scores, these variables were not included in our final analyses.…”

Section: Climate Host and Disperser Summariesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Process‐based and correlative modeling of desert mistletoe distribution: a multiscalar approach

2013

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Abstract. Because factors affecting distributional areas of species change as scale (extent and grain) changes, different environmental and biological factors must be integrated across geographic ranges at different resolutions, to understand fully the patterns and processes underlying species' ranges. We expected climate factors to be more important at coarse resolutions and biotic factors at finer resolutions. We used data on occurrence of a parasitic plant (Phoradendron californicum), restricted to parts of the Sonoran and Mojave deserts, to analyze how climate and mobility factors explain its distributional area. We developed analyses at five spatial resolutions (1, 5, 10, 20, 50 km) within the distributional area of the disperser species, and compared ecological niche models from three commonly used correlative methods with a process-based model that estimates colonization and extinction rates in a metapopulation framework. Correlative models improved when layers associated with hosts and disperser were used as predictors, in comparison with models based on climate only; however, they tended to overfit to data as more layers were added. Dispersal-related parameters were more relevant at finer resolutions (1-5 km), but importance of extinction-related parameters did not change with scale. We observed greater coincidence between correlative and process-based models when based only on dimensions of the abiotic niche (i.e., climate), but a clearer and more comprehensive mechanistic understanding was derived from the processbased algorithm.

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United States Historically Climatology Network Daily Temperature, Precipitation, and Snow Data for 1871-1997

Cited by 46 publications

References 0 publications

A rapid upward shift of a forest ecotone during 40 years of warming in the Green Mountains of Vermont

A rapid upward shift of a forest ecotone during 40 years of warming in the Green Mountains of Vermont

Long-term spatial and temporal trends in frost indices in Kansas, USA

Process‐based and correlative modeling of desert mistletoe distribution: a multiscalar approach

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