Univariate Statistics of the RCPs Forced ET–SCI Based Extreme Climate Indices Over Pakistan

Abstract

Numerical summaries of univariate climatic records, such as temperature and precipitation, are useful for making quantitative decisions for mitigation and adaptation measures. Climate simulations and projections often contain values that lie far away from substance of the data. These values can bias the summary statistics away from values representative for majority of the sample. This problem can be avoided by selecting ensembles approach as well as by using statistics that are resistant to the presence of such outliers. Hence, in addition to typical statistics, resistant statistics are used to investigate spatiotemporal changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over a versatile agro-climatic featured country of Pakistan, by engaging the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 that provides statistically downscaled Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate baseline and projections (2021-2050) based on Expert Team on Sector-specific Climate Indices (ET-SCI) method. The results show the following: (a) Shifts in the univariate count statistics under the RCP8.5 are highly prominent with 0.81 degrees deviation in 5th percentile and with a substantial 1.86 degrees deviation in the 95th percentile of the maximum of daily maximum temperature over the projected time series. (b) Standard deviation of historical summer days is placed at 3.7 days with a consistent change under the RCP4.5 emission scenario. Nevertheless, the standard deviation of the summer days hikes by 5.9 days under the RCP8.5 emission scenario. (c) A distressing condition is comprehended under the RCP8.5 emission scenario where changes of 16.5 percent in the 5th and of 19.7 percent in the 95th percentiles are revealed in the warm nights future projections. (d) The maximum rate of simple daily intensity of precipitation in the historical period exists at 0.2 mm/day, however, the RCP4.5 emission scenario thrusts that up to 0.6 mm/day in the projection period. (e) Under the RCP8.5 emission scenario, the standard deviation inflates by 36.4 days while range digresses by an enormous 95 days in the projection period of the consecutive dry days. The outcomes are of applied practice in improving local approaches for hydro-reservoirs and eco-environment controlling, especially in the diverse climatic region of Pakistan.

Heritability and Correlation Among Physiological and Yield Traits in Chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.)

“…The climatic mean annual temperature and precipitation in the Peshawar region from 1980-2018 is 22.25°C and 817 mm, respectively (Ahmad et al, 2023;Burhan et al, 2021). During the research period, the minimum temperature experienced was 3°C (January 2021), while the maximum was 37.2°C (May 2021).…”

On the emergence of a predicted climate change signal: When and where it could appear over Pakistan

“…Pakistan borders with the India and the Arabian Sea in the east, Afghanistan and Iran in the west, and China in the north (Figure 1). The climate of Pakistan is very diverse in terms of temperature (Burhan et al, 2021). One side of it is mostly arid to semiarid, followed by warm summers and icy winters with extreme temperature variations.…”

Identification of Climate Change Impacts and Tradeoffs Established Under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways of IPCC AR6 using A Moderate Resolution GCM viz. MRI-ESM2-0 of CMIP6 over Pakistan

“…Pakistan is known to be vulnerable to climate change. The geographical variation is such that glacial areas of the north, including the Himalayas, the Karakorum, and the Hindu Kush mountains (6000+ m height) bear average temperature less than zero℃ (Burhan et al, 2015;Burhan et al, 2020), while the other low latitude regions have an average temperature above than 25℃ (Riaz et al, 2020;Burhan et al, 2021). Extreme temperature conditions pose a threat to population -climate change adds to these threats (Fand et al, 2012;Hanna et al, 2011).…”

“…Climate change is also the main problem for water reservoirs in Pakistan, where diverse climate patterns have prevailed (Ali et al, 2009;Burhan et al, 2020). The higher altitude of Hindukush and Himalayan mountains supplies half of the freshwater reservoirs through snow and melting ice.…”

“…The higher altitude of Hindukush and Himalayan mountains supplies half of the freshwater reservoirs through snow and melting ice. For example, during boreal winter 70% of the rivers flow due to melting ice water (Burhan et al, 2020). However, global warming has enhanced snow and ice melting, prompted significant variations in precipitation that resulted in severe events such as flooding and droughts, increased sea levels, and triggered loss of habitat (Hashmi et al, 2020).…”