Unpacking systemic, cascading, and compound risks: A case based analysis of Asia Pacific

Ahamed, Muhammed Sulfikkar; Sarmah, Tanaya; Dabral, Ambika; Chatterjee, Ranit; Shaw, Rajib

doi:10.1016/j.pdisas.2023.100285

Cited by 6 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 11 publications

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“…This study is focusing on the compounding effects from terrain-near groundwater, but since deep groundwater pressure interacts with shallow groundwater levels with a different time memory, there may be correlation that are being overlooked. There may also be other drivers such as groundwater abstraction, or groundwater discharge to the sea that may potentially impact flood risks, however more research is needed here and generally more in-depth research is required on correlations between the various flooding drivers and the compound, cascading, and systemic risks they cause (Sulfikkar Ahamed et al, 2023). Apart from these potential correlations and wider risk issues not incorporated fully, the effect of duration and long-term extremes seems to be particularly important for the catchment, as long-term high precipitation and prolonged closed sluice conditions greatly accelerate the water built-up.…”

Section: Compound Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Compound flooding from storm surges, rivers, and groundwater - Hydrodynamic modelling in a coastal catchment

Seidenfaden,

Skjerbæk,

Henriksen

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Coastal zones are particularly vulnerable to flooding. Several climatic and state variables may drive the occurrence of such events, e.g., storm surges, sea level rise, heavy rainfall, and high river and groundwater levels. The co-occurrence of such events, i.e. compound or cascading effects, has been shown to escalate flooding impacts and extent, but the contribution of groundwater is routinely overlooked. Here, we apply an integrated hydrological/hydrodynamic/groundwater model to investigate underlying causes and compound effects in a Danish Wadden sea catchment. Two models were developed: a long-term model and an overbank-spilling model. The long-term model was calibrated and used to simulate 30-year periods. Extreme value analyses were carried out for sea levels, precipitation, simulated river water stages, and groundwater levels. The co-occurrence of extremes was used to identify compound effects on high river-stage incidents (as a flood proxy). The overbank-spilling model was then used for simulating flooding for a subset of the largest river stage events identified from the long-term model. The analysis showed that the river-stage events were closely correlated to the sea level extremes, but that the largest river-stage events were almost exclusively compounded by precipitation or groundwater, or both. High groundwater tables seem to correlate to the flooding events with the largest spatial extent, as well as prolonged extreme events where either precipitation or sea level were elevated during long periods. Thus, this study shows that there is a general need to acknowledge the potential effect of groundwater levels on the resulting flooding on terrain in coastal zones.

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Section: Compound Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Compound flooding from storm surges, rivers, and groundwater - Hydrodynamic modelling in a coastal catchment

Seidenfaden,

Skjerbæk,

Henriksen

et al. 2024

Preprint

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In search of better methods for the longitudinal assessment of tech-derived X-risks: How five leading scenario planning efforts can help

Undheim

2024

Technology in Society

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Repositioning Earthquake Risk Reduction: Implications to Global Risk Landscape

Shaw

2023

J. Disaster Res.

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Concepts and approaches of earthquake risk reduction have evolved over time. The Great Kanto Earthquake of 1923 has paved the pathway of this long journey. 1995 the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake has taught the importance of self help and mutual help in terms of community participation, volunteer activities, and role of civil society. In the first international decade of disaster risk reduction, two landmark earthquake risk reduction projects, namely risk assessment tools for diagnosis of urban areas against seismic disaster (RADIUS) and global earthquake safety initiative (GESI) have made significant impacts to scenraio-based risk assessment, and raising awareness of local governments mainly in developing countries to undertake decisive actions. The Kutch Earthquake of 2001 of India has prompted the need of owner driven reconstruction (ODR), which is considered inclusive as well as sustainable in long run. While the pre-disaster preventive measures for earthquake risks are challenging, the new complex global risk landscape poses additional challenges which need to be addressed to reposition earthquake risk reduction. It is argued that addressing systemic risks, active involvement of private sectors, role of new and emerging technologies, understanding priorities of new generation, and role of new entrepreneurship (in the form of Science-preneurship) are some of the future pathways to address the complexity of earthquake risk reduction.

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Unpacking systemic, cascading, and compound risks: A case based analysis of Asia Pacific

Cited by 6 publications

References 11 publications

Compound flooding from storm surges, rivers, and groundwater - Hydrodynamic modelling in a coastal catchment

Compound flooding from storm surges, rivers, and groundwater - Hydrodynamic modelling in a coastal catchment

In search of better methods for the longitudinal assessment of tech-derived X-risks: How five leading scenario planning efforts can help

Repositioning Earthquake Risk Reduction: Implications to Global Risk Landscape

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