Unparalleled coupled ocean-atmosphere summer heatwaves in the New Zealand region: drivers, mechanisms and impacts

Salinger, M. J.; Diamond, Howard J.; Behrens, Erik; Fernandez, Denise; Fitzharris, B. B.; Herold, Nicholas; Johnstone, Paul; Kerckhoffs, Huub; Mullan, A. Brett; Parker, Amber; Renwick, James; Scofield, Claire; Siano, Allan; Smith, Robert G.; South, Paul M.; Sutton, Philip; Teixeira, Edmar; Thomsen, Mads S.; Trought, Michael C. T.

doi:10.1007/s10584-020-02730-5

Cited by 48 publications

(47 citation statements)

References 40 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Marine heatwaves (MHWs), characterized by large‐scale, positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, have drawn widespread attention in recent years (Scannell et al., 2016). They occur in both Northern and Southern Hemispheres: in the Northeast (NE) Pacific (Bond et al., 2015; Di Lorenzo & Mantua, 2016), Northwest Atlantic (Mills et al., 2013), off western Australia (Pearce & Feng, 2013), and near New Zealand (Salinger et al., 2019, 2020; Shi et al., 2020). In particular, a prominent near‐surface warm water mass developed in the NE Pacific during 2013–2015 (Di Lorenzo & Mantua, 2016), also termed as “The Blob” (Bond et al., 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Persistent and Intense Marine Heatwave in the Northeast Pacific During 2019–2020

Chen

Shi

Liu

et al. 2021

Geophysical Research Letters

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Motivated by increasing marine heatwaves (MHWs) and their dramatic climate effects, we analyze the persistent 2019–2020 MHW, which showed significant positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Northeast Pacific. Four SST peaks were identified during its evolution, which appeared in November 2019, April, July, and November 2020. Positive temperature anomalies were mostly located within the mixed layer for the first‐year winter peak. However, the warm core was centered around 50 m below (at the bottom of) the mixed layer for the summer (second‐year winter) peak. The dominant factor for the two wintertime peaks was a surface heat flux anomaly, with reduction in evaporative cooling due to the easterly anomaly. The heat flux and potentially the vertical entrainment combined to induce the peak in spring. In the tropical Pacific, a La Niña event occurred following this MHW, while other recorded double‐peak events were associated with El Niño or neutral conditions.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Persistent and Intense Marine Heatwave in the Northeast Pacific During 2019–2020

Chen

Shi

Liu

et al. 2021

Geophysical Research Letters

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The ripening period might shift toward the hotter part of the season, leading to changes in temperatures during the ripening period (Trought et al, 2015 ), which could not only change grape sugar concentrations, but also flavor and aroma profiles. However, recent research has indicated that in current seasons where phenology has advanced due to heatwaves, a reciprocal increase in temperature during the ripening period did not occur (Salinger et al, 2020 ). Therefore, understanding the biophysical changes at specific times of the growing season at local and national levels will be important for assessing the implications of climate change on grape and wine production.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Wine Grape Cultivar Shifts Due to Climate Change in New Zealand

et al. 2021

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climate change has already been affecting the regional suitability of grapevines with significant advances in phenology being observed globally in the last few decades. This has significant implications for New Zealand, where the wine industry represents a major share of the horticultural industry revenue. We modeled key crop phenological stages to better understand temporal and spatial shifts in three important regions of New Zealand (Marlborough, Hawke's Bay, Central Otago) for three dominant cultivars (Merlot, Pinot noir, and Sauvignon blanc) and one potential new and later ripening cultivar (Grenache). Simulations show an overall advance in flowering, véraison, and sugar ripeness by mid-century with more pronounced advance by the end of the century. Results show the magnitude of changes depends on the combination of greenhouse gas emission pathway, grape cultivar, and region. By mid-century, in the Marlborough region for instance, the four cultivars would flower 3 to 7 days earlier and reach sugar ripeness 7 to 15 days earlier depending on the greenhouse gas emission pathway. For growers to maintain the same timing of key phenological stages would require shifting planting of cultivars to more Southern parts of the country or implement adaptation strategies. Results also show the compression of time between flowering and véraison for all three dominant cultivars is due to a proportionally greater advance in véraison, particularly for Merlot in the Hawke's Bay and Pinot noir in Central Otago. Cross-regional analysis also raises the likelihood of the different regional cultivars ripening within a smaller window of time, complicating harvesting schedules across the country. However, considering New Zealand primarily accommodates cool climate viticulture cultivars, our results suggest that late ripening cultivars or extended ripening window in cooler regions may be advantageous in the face of climate change. These insights can inform New Zealand winegrowers with climate change adaptation options for their cultivar choices.

show abstract

“…Above-average temperatures were noted in the 2017/18 season over the flowering period (as indicated by the slope of the deviation from the long-term mean), while the other two seasons were close to the long-term average over flowering. Further heatwaves were experienced in both the 2017/18 and 2018/19 seasons at certain times in the period between flowering and véraison (Salinger et al, 2019;Salinger et al, 2020). The dates of flowering and véraison were estimated using the Grapevine Flowering Véraison (GFV) (Parker et al, 2011).…”

Section: Figurementioning

confidence: 99%

Using Bayesian growth models to predict grape yield

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background and aims: Seasonal differences in vine yield need to be managed to ensure appropriate fruit composition at harvest. Differences in yield are the result of changes in vine management (e.g., the number of nodes retained after harvest) and weather conditions (in particular, temperature) at key vine development stages. Early yield prediction enables growers to manage vines to achieve target yields and prepare the required infrastructure for the harvest.Methods and results: Bunch mass data was collected during the 2016/17, 2017/18 and 2018/19 seasons from a commercial vineyard on the Wairau Plains, Marlborough, New Zealand (41o2’23”S; 173o51’15”E). A Bayesian growth model, assuming a double sigmoidal curve, was used to predict the yield at the end of each season. The accuracy of the prediction was investigated using the Monte-Carlo simulation for yield prediction at various growth stages assuming different prior information.Conclusion: The results show that the model is sensitive to prior assumption and that having a non-informative prior may be more beneficial than having an informative prior based on one unusual year.

show abstract

Unparalleled coupled ocean-atmosphere summer heatwaves in the New Zealand region: drivers, mechanisms and impacts

Cited by 48 publications

References 40 publications

A Persistent and Intense Marine Heatwave in the Northeast Pacific During 2019–2020

A Persistent and Intense Marine Heatwave in the Northeast Pacific During 2019–2020

Projected Wine Grape Cultivar Shifts Due to Climate Change in New Zealand

Using Bayesian growth models to predict grape yield

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About