Unprecedented drought over tropical South America in 2016: significantly under-predicted by tropical SST

Erfanian, Amir; Wang, Guiling; Fomenko, Lori

doi:10.1038/s41598-017-05373-2

Cited by 171 publications

(125 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…Droughts are continuing to impact the basin (Erfanian et al, 2017;Jiménez-Muñoz et al, 2016). If this lag persists, intact Amazonian forests may be increasingly dominated by sub-optimally adapted trees in terms of their preferred climate space, potentially ESQUIVEL-MUELBERT ET AL.…”

Section: The Pace Of Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Compositional response of Amazon forests to climate change

Esquivel‐Muelbert

Baker

Dexter

et al. 2018

Global Change Biology

346

254

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Most of the planet's diversity is concentrated in the tropics, which includes many regions undergoing rapid climate change. Yet, while climate‐induced biodiversity changes are widely documented elsewhere, few studies have addressed this issue for lowland tropical ecosystems. Here we investigate whether the floristic and functional composition of intact lowland Amazonian forests have been changing by evaluating records from 106 long‐term inventory plots spanning 30 years. We analyse three traits that have been hypothesized to respond to different environmental drivers (increase in moisture stress and atmospheric CO 2 concentrations): maximum tree size, biogeographic water‐deficit affiliation and wood density. Tree communities have become increasingly dominated by large‐statured taxa, but to date there has been no detectable change in mean wood density or water deficit affiliation at the community level, despite most forest plots having experienced an intensification of the dry season. However, among newly recruited trees, dry‐affiliated genera have become more abundant, while the mortality of wet‐affiliated genera has increased in those plots where the dry season has intensified most. Thus, a slow shift to a more dry‐affiliated Amazonia is underway, with changes in compositional dynamics (recruits and mortality) consistent with climate‐change drivers, but yet to significantly impact whole‐community composition. The Amazon observational record suggests that the increase in atmospheric CO 2 is driving a shift within tree communities to large‐statured species and that climate changes to date will impact forest composition, but long generation times of tropical trees mean that biodiversity change is lagging behind climate change.

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Section: The Pace Of Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Compositional response of Amazon forests to climate change

Esquivel‐Muelbert

Baker

Dexter

et al. 2018

Global Change Biology

346

254

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…In addition, dry season precipitation is expected to decline (Boisier, Ciais, Ducharne, & Guimberteau, ; Malhi et al, ; Marengo et al, ), a trend that is ongoing since 1979 (Fu et al, ). Furthermore, there are signs that extreme episodic droughts are intensifying because of stronger Atlantic north‐south sea surface temperature gradients (Cox et al, ; Erfanian, Wang, & Fomenko, ). Episodic droughts, most notably in 2005, 2010, and 2015 have resulted in reduced tree growth and increased mortality in neotropical forests, specifically in the ever wet forest of the Amazon Basin (Feldpausch et al, ; Phillips et al, ; Rifai et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Wood allocation trade‐offs between fiber wall, fiber lumen, and axial parenchyma drive drought resistance in neotropical trees

Janßen

Hölttä

Fleischer

et al. 2020

Plant Cell & Environment

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Functional relationships between wood density and measures of xylem hydraulic safety and efficiency are ambiguous, especially in wet tropical forests. In this meta‐analysis, we move beyond wood density per se and identify relationships between xylem allocated to fibers, parenchyma, and vessels and measures of hydraulic safety and efficiency. We analyzed published data of xylem traits, hydraulic properties and measures of drought resistance from neotropical tree species retrieved from 346 sources. We found that xylem volume allocation to fiber walls increases embolism resistance, but at the expense of specific conductivity and sapwood capacitance. Xylem volume investment in fiber lumen increases capacitance, while investment in axial parenchyma is associated with higher specific conductivity. Dominant tree taxa from wet forests prioritize xylem allocation to axial parenchyma at the expense of fiber walls, resulting in a low embolism resistance for a given wood density and a high vulnerability to drought‐induced mortality. We conclude that strong trade‐offs between xylem allocation to fiber walls, fiber lumen, and axial parenchyma drive drought resistance in neotropical trees. Moreover, the benefits of xylem allocation to axial parenchyma in wet tropical trees might not outweigh the consequential low embolism resistance under more frequent and severe droughts in a changing climate.

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“…There are many examples where increasing frequencies and severities of droughts and floods appear to follow disruptions to the water-cycle (Millán 2014;Hirsch and Archfield 2015;Erfanian et al 2017). While global precipitation held relatively constant over recent decades, observations indicate that increases occurred over the tropical oceans and higher latitudes (much of North America and Eurasia), while declines occurred over Africa and various mid latitudes (notably the Mediterranean and southern Asia) (Trenberth 2011;Adler et al 2017).…”

Section: The Water-cycle Backgroundmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forests, atmospheric water and an uncertain future: the new biology of the global water cycle

Sheil

2018

For. Ecosyst.

144

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Theory and evidence indicate that trees and other vegetation influence the atmospheric water-cycle in various ways. These influences are more important, more complex, and more poorly characterised than is widely realised. While there is little doubt that changes in tree cover will impact the water-cycle, the wider consequences remain difficult to predict as the underlying relationships and processes remain poorly characterised. Nonetheless, as forests are vulnerable to human activities, these linked aspects of the water-cycle are also at risk and the potential consequences of large scale forest loss are severe. Here, for non-specialist readers, I review our knowledge of the links between vegetation-cover and climate with a focus on forests and rain (precipitation). I highlight advances, uncertainties and research opportunities. There are significant shortcomings in our understanding of the atmospheric hydrological cycle and of its representation in climate models. A better understanding of the role of vegetation and tree-cover will reduce some of these shortcomings. I outline and illustrate various research themes where these advances may be found. These themes include the biology of evaporation, aerosols and atmospheric motion, as well as the processes that determine monsoons and diurnal precipitation cycles. A novel theory-the 'biotic pump'-suggests that evaporation and condensation can exert a major influence over atmospheric dynamics. This theory explains how high rainfall can be maintained within those continental land-masses that are sufficiently forested. Feedbacks within many of these processes can result in non-linear behaviours and the potential for dramatic changes as a result of forest loss (or gain): for example, switching from a wet to a dry local climate (or visa-versa). Much remains unknown and multiple research disciplines are needed to address this: forest scientists and other biologists have a major role to play. New ideas, methods and data offer opportunities to improve understanding. Expect surprises.

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Unprecedented drought over tropical South America in 2016: significantly under-predicted by tropical SST

Cited by 171 publications

References 48 publications

Compositional response of Amazon forests to climate change

Compositional response of Amazon forests to climate change

Wood allocation trade‐offs between fiber wall, fiber lumen, and axial parenchyma drive drought resistance in neotropical trees

Forests, atmospheric water and an uncertain future: the new biology of the global water cycle

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