Unravelling the dynamics of Lassa fever transmission with nosocomial infections via non-fractional and fractional mathematical models

Abidemi, Afeez; Owolabi, Kolade M.

doi:10.1140/epjp/s13360-024-04910-z

Cited by 11 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…In this section, we explore the significance of model parameters on transmission dynamics of LASV using sensitivity analysis. The sensitivity analysis enables the assessment of proportional change in the basic reproduction number as the model parameter is varied [ 57 ]. For the LASV model (2.1) , the normalized forward sensitivity indices of the time-average basic reproduction number

with respect to the parameter

are calculated using the following:…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling Lassa virus dynamics in West African Mastomys natalensis and the impact of human activities

John,

Fatoyinbo,

Hayman

2024

J. R. Soc. Interface.

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Lassa fever is a West African rodent-borne viral haemorrhagic fever that kills thousands of people a year, with 100 000 to 300 000 people a year probably infected by Lassa virus (LASV). The main reservoir of LASV is the Natal multimammate mouse, Mastomys natalensis . There is reported asynchrony between peak infection in the rodent population and peak Lassa fever risk among people, probably owing to differing seasonal contact rates. Here, we developed a susceptible-infected-recovered ( S I R )-based model of LASV dynamics in its rodent host, M. natalensis , with a persistently infected class and seasonal birthing to test the impact of changes to seasonal birthing in the future owing to climate and land use change. Our simulations suggest shifting rodent birthing timing and synchrony will alter the peak of viral prevalence, changing risk to people, with viral dynamics mainly stable in adults and varying in the young, but with more infected individuals. We calculate the time-average basic reproductive number, R ~ p , for this infectious disease system with periodic changes to population sizes owing to birthing using a time-average method and with a sensitivity analysis show four key parameters: carrying capacity, adult mortality, the transmission parameter among adults and additional disease-induced mortality impact the maintenance of LASV in M. natalensis most, with carrying capacity and adult mortality potentially changeable owing to human activities and interventions.

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with respect to the parameter

are calculated using the following:…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling Lassa virus dynamics in West African Mastomys natalensis and the impact of human activities

John,

Fatoyinbo,

Hayman

2024

J. R. Soc. Interface.

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“…It has been established by a plethora of researchers that fractional-order derivatives define real-life situations better than the usual classical-order derivatives. This is due to the fact that fractional-order derivatives possess distinctive properties such as memory and heredity, which enable adequate and effective comprehension of real-life phenomena [27][28][29][30][31][32][33]. It is on this note that this study is focused on the application of fractional calculus to the epidemiology of malaria with a view to gaining further insights into how the consequences of memory affect the transmission dynamics of the disease in a social heirarchy-structured human population.…”

Section: Fractional-order Social Hierarchy-stratified Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This subsection is dedicated to the investigation of the existence and uniqueness of the solution of the social hierarchy-structured fractional-order malaria model (4) using the Banach's fixed point theory approach [3,33,36,37]. Suppose the noninteger-order malaria model ( 4) is rewritten in a compact form:…”

Section: Existence and Uniqueness Of Solutionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Dynamics of a Social Hierarchy-Stratified Malaria Model: Insight from Fractional Calculus

Abimbade,

Chuma,

Sangoniyi

et al. 2024

Mathematics

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In this study, a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of malaria among different socioeconomic groups in the human population interacting with a susceptible-infectious vector population is presented and analysed using a fractional-order derivative of the Caputo type. The total human population is stratified into two distinguished classes of lower and higher income individuals, with each class further subdivided into susceptible, infectious, and recovered populations. The socio hierachy-structured fractional-order malaria model is analyzed through the application of different dynamical system tools. The theory of positivity and boundedness based on the generalized mean value theorem is employed to investigate the basic properties of solutions of the model, while the Banach fixed point theory approach is used to prove the existence and uniqueness of the solution. Furthermore, unlike the existing related studies, comprehensive global asymptotic dynamics of the fractional-order malaria model around both disease-free and endemic equilibria are explored by generalizing the usual classical methods for establishing global asymptotic stability of the steady states. The asymptotic behavior of the trajectories of the system are graphically illustrated at different values of the fractional (noninteger) order.

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“…As determined through parameter estimation, the heartwater reproduction number was found to be 1.9345, with a fractional order of 0.6990, which provided a good fit. The study described in [38] introduced a traditional deterministic compartmental model to analyse the dynamics of Lassa fever. This model not only considers the transmission pathways from symptomatic humans and infected rodents, but also includes the transmission from hospitalised humans to account for the spread of the disease within healthcare settings.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling the transmission behavior of measles disease considering contaminated environment through a fractal-fractional Mittag-Leffler kernel

Wireko,

Adu,

Gyamfi

et al. 2024

Phys. Scr.

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This work utilises a This work utilises a fractal-fractional operator to examine the dynamics of transmission of measles disease. The existence and uniqueness of the measles model have been thoroughly examined in the context of the fixed point theorem, specifically utilising the Atangana-Baleanu fractal and fractional operators. The model has been demonstrated to possess both \textcolor{blue}{Hyers-Ulam} stability and \textcolor{blue}{Hyers-Ulam Rassias} stability. Furthermore, a qualitative analysis of the model was performed, including examination of key parameters such as the fundamental reproduction number, the \textcolor{blue}{measles}-free and measles-present equilibria, and assessment of global stability. This research has shown that the transmission of \textcolor{blue}{measles} disease is affected by natural phenomena, as changes in the fractal-fractional order lead to changes in the disease dynamics. Furthermore, environmental contamination has been shown to play a significant role in the transmission of the \textcolor{blue}{measles} disease. } fractal-fractional operator to examine the dynamics of transmission of Measles disease. The existence and uniqueness of the Measles model have been thoroughly examined in the context of the fixed point theorem, specifically utilising the Atangana-Baleanu fractal and fractional operators. The model has been demonstrated to possess both hyers ulam stability and hyers lam rassias stability. Furthermore, a qualitative analysis of the model was performed, including examination of key parameters such as the fundamental reproduction number, the Measles-free and Measles-present equilibria, and assessment of global stability. This research has shown that the transmission of Measles disease is affected by natural phenomena, as changes in the fractal-fractional order lead to changes in the disease dynamics. Furthermore, environmental contamination has been shown to play a significant role in the transmission of the Measles disease.

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Unravelling the dynamics of Lassa fever transmission with nosocomial infections via non-fractional and fractional mathematical models

Cited by 11 publications

References 46 publications

Modelling Lassa virus dynamics in West African Mastomys natalensis and the impact of human activities

Modelling Lassa virus dynamics in West African Mastomys natalensis and the impact of human activities

Global Dynamics of a Social Hierarchy-Stratified Malaria Model: Insight from Fractional Calculus

Modelling the transmission behavior of measles disease considering contaminated environment through a fractal-fractional Mittag-Leffler kernel

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