Unresolved questions concerning human papillomavirus infection and transmission: a modelling perspective

Regan, David G.; Philp, David J.; Waters, Edward K.

doi:10.1071/sh10006

Cited by 9 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 95 publications

(102 reference statements)

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“…Nevertheless, it may be possible that infections occurred in the vaccinated (without leading to disease) and whether these infections can be transmitted is unknown. 52 The effect of vaccine efficacy on cost-effectiveness was not consistent in the four studies in which sensitivity analyses were conducted for this endpoint. 40,42,47,49 This might be due to the effect of herd protection masking the benefit of higher efficacy.…”

Section: ) a Linear Relationship Was Seen Between The Proportional Cmentioning

confidence: 94%

A critical review of cost-effectiveness analyses of vaccinating males against human papillomavirus

Jiang

Gauthier

Postma

et al. 2013

Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics

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A critical review of cost-effectiveness analyses of HPV vaccination in males was conducted and nine studies were identified in different countries. Due to the heterogeneity among these studies in terms of modeling approach, vaccination strategies, health outcomes considered, assumptions and parameters, limited conclusions can be drawn with regard to the absolute cost-effectiveness. Nevertheless, key drivers were identified. More favorable cost-effectiveness appeared when all HPV-related diseases outcomes were considered, a suboptimal vaccine coverage among girls and/or lower vaccine prices were assumed. There was a general lack of transparency to fully describe the details of the methodological approach of modeling and calibration. Further research should be conducted to generate robust evidence-based data sets (HPV-related diseases epidemiology, costs and quality of life). The best modeling practice for HPV vaccination and how to better capture the true economic value of vaccination beyond cost-effectiveness in a broader policy context need to be investigated.

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Section: ) a Linear Relationship Was Seen Between The Proportional Cmentioning

confidence: 94%

A critical review of cost-effectiveness analyses of vaccinating males against human papillomavirus

Jiang

Gauthier

Postma

et al. 2013

Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Despite extensive study, there remains considerable uncertainty regarding aspects of the natural history of HPV and the patterns of sexual behaviour that underpin transmission . Furthermore, many studies have not been designed with transmission models in mind, so the processes and phenomena they measure cannot always be applied directly and/or their interpretation in the context of transmission is not clear.…”

Section: Background On Modelling Human Papillomavirus and Relevance Tmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo forward projection for statistical analysis in epidemic modelling of human papillomavirus

Korostil

Peters

Cornebise³

et al. 2012

Statistics in Medicine

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A Bayesian statistical model and estimation methodology based on forward projection adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo is developed in order to perform the calibration of a high-dimensional nonlinear system of ordinary differential equations representing an epidemic model for human papillomavirus types 6 and 11 (HPV-6, HPV-11). The model is compartmental and involves stratification by age, gender and sexual-activity group. Developing this model and a means to calibrate it efficiently is relevant because HPV is a very multi-typed and common sexually transmitted infection with more than 100 types currently known. The two types studied in this paper, types 6 and 11, are causing about 90% of anogenital warts. We extend the development of a sexual mixing matrix on the basis of a formulation first suggested by Garnett and Anderson, frequently used to model sexually transmitted infections. In particular, we consider a stochastic mixing matrix framework that allows us to jointly estimate unknown attributes and parameters of the mixing matrix along with the parameters involved in the calibration of the HPV epidemic model. This matrix describes the sexual interactions between members of the population under study and relies on several quantities that are a priori unknown. The Bayesian model developed allows one to estimate jointly the HPV-6 and HPV-11 epidemic model parameters as well as unknown sexual mixing matrix parameters related to assortativity. Finally, we explore the ability of an extension to the class of adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms to incorporate a forward projection strategy for the ordinary differential equation state trajectories. Efficient exploration of the Bayesian posterior distribution developed for the ordinary differential equation parameters provides a challenge for any Markov chain sampling methodology, hence the interest in adaptive Markov chain methods. We conclude with simulation studies on synthetic and recent actual data.

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“…Assessment of the adequacy of vaccine coverage achieved can be assisted by mathematical modelling, and models for the Australian setting continue to be refined. 11,12 Because the target group for the HPV vaccination program fell outside the age range of the Australian Childhood Immunisation Register, a specific strategy to estimate agespecific vaccine coverage from the program was required. The National HPV Vaccination Program Register (NHVPR), which is owned by the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing and operated by the Victorian Cytology Service, was established to meet this need, as well as to assist in administering the program and for monitoring and evaluation (for details about the NHVPR, please see the accompanying paper 13 ).…”

Section: Assess Age-specific Hpv Vaccination Coverage Achieved In Thementioning

confidence: 99%

Monitoring the control of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and related diseases in Australia: towards a national HPV surveillance strategy

2010

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Abstract. This paper describes a possible multifaceted approach to human papillomavirus (HPV) related surveillance in Australia following implementation of a national HPV vaccination program. We describe eight main components: monitoring of vaccine coverage, vaccine safety, type-specific HPV infection surveillance, cervical cytology (Pap screening) coverage and screen detected lesion prevalence, cervical cancer incidence and mortality, genital wart incidence, incidence of recurrent respiratory papillomatosis, and knowledge, attitudes and beliefs about HPV and HPV vaccination. Australia is well placed to monitor the impact of its HPV vaccination program as well as to measure vaccine effectiveness with existing HPV vaccines, cervical screening and cancer registries.

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Unresolved questions concerning human papillomavirus infection and transmission: a modelling perspective

Cited by 9 publications

References 95 publications

A critical review of cost-effectiveness analyses of vaccinating males against human papillomavirus

A critical review of cost-effectiveness analyses of vaccinating males against human papillomavirus

Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo forward projection for statistical analysis in epidemic modelling of human papillomavirus

Monitoring the control of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and related diseases in Australia: towards a national HPV surveillance strategy

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