Untangling methodological and scale considerations in growth and productivity trend estimates of Canada’s forests

Marchand, William; Girardin, Martin P.; Gauthier, Sylvie; Hartmann, Henrik; Bouriaud, Olivier; Babst, Flurin; Bergeron, Yves

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aad82a

Cited by 36 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 166 publications

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“…Canopy cover increased and decreased variably at small scales, but either predominantly increased or (Estes et al 2018;Marchand et al 2018) and could underlie the contrasting changes in forest structure reported even from the same localities of the boreal region (Girardin et al 2016;Hellmann et al 2016;Henttonen et al 2017). Our results emphasize that comprehensive understanding of forest dynamics necessitates that the scale of observation is explicitly considered when analyzing forest ecosystem change and the underlying drivers.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 66%

“…For efficient monitoring, conservation and management, it is important to understand the scaledependent dynamics of these forests with negligible human impact (Moussaoui et al 2019). For example, the recent contradicting observations of tree biomass changes in the boreal zone (e.g., Girardin et al 2016;Hellmann et al 2016;Henttonen et al 2017) could partly be related to varying scales of observation (Marchand et al 2018), emphasizing the need of a better understanding of the scale-dependency of these changes (Estes et al 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, the fire-created forest mosaics in Fennoscandia (Zackrisson 1977) and the old-growth forests of northeastern North America show characteristics of equilibrium landscapes and hierarchical patch dynamics (Gauthier et al 2010), while forests where crown fires are common could be considered as non-equilibrium systems (e.g., Kafka et al 2001). However, how forest dynamics appear depends on the spatial scale of observation and on the timing of observation period (Estes et al 2018;Marchand et al 2018). Therefore, such conceptual conclusions of forest dynamics necessitate the consideration of the spatial scale of observation and observation period (Smith and Urban 1988;Turner et al 1993;Estes et al 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The structure of boreal old-growth forests changes at multiple spatial scales over decades

et al. 2020

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Context Changes in the structure of boreal oldgrowth forests are typically studied at a specific spatial scale. Consequently, little is known about forest development across different spatial scales. Objectives We investigated how and at what spatial scales forest structure changed over several decades in three 4 km 2 boreal old-growth forests landscapes in northeastern Finland and two in Quebec, Canada. Methods We used canopy cover values visually interpreted to 0.1-ha grid cells from aerial photographs taken at three time points between the years 1959 and 2011, and error distributions quantified for the interpretation. We identified the spatial scales at which canopy cover changed between the time points, and examined the credibility of changes at these scales using the error distributions in Bayesian inference. Results Canopy cover changed at three to four spatial scales, the number of scales depending on the studied landscape and time interval. At large scales (15.4-321.7 ha), canopy cover increased in Finland during all time intervals. In Quebec, the direction of the large-scale change varied between the studied time intervals, owing to the occurrence of an insect outbreak and a consequent recovery. However, parts of these landscapes also showed canopy cover increase. Superimposed on the large-scale developments, canopy cover changed variably at smaller scales (1.3-2.8-ha and 0.1-ha). Conclusions Our findings support the idea that the structure of boreal old-growth forests changes at discernible spatial scales. Instead of being driven by gap dynamics, the old-growth forests in the studied regions are currently reacting to large-scale drivers by an increase in canopy cover.Landscape Ecol (2020) 35:843-858 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-020-00979-w( 0123456789().,-volV) (0123456789().,-volV)

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 66%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The structure of boreal old-growth forests changes at multiple spatial scales over decades

et al. 2020

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“…This would be hard to detect by the traditional approaches of tree‐ring research and xylogenesis monitoring. Dendroanatomy might thus complement other studies investigating ecosystem response to climate change at different timescales (Marchand et al, ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 67%

Wood anatomical traits in black spruce reveal latent water constraints on the boreal forest

Puchi

Rossi

Carrer

2019

Global Change Biology

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The effects of climate change on high‐latitude forest ecosystems are complex, making forecasts of future scenarios uncertain. The predicted lengthening of the growing season under warming conditions is expected to increase tree growth rates. However, there is evidence of an increasing sensitivity of the boreal forest to drought stress. To assess the influence of temperature and precipitation on the growth of black spruce (Picea mariana), we investigated long‐term series of wood anatomical traits on 20 trees from four sites along 600 km, the latitudinal range of the closed boreal forest in Quebec, Canada. We correlated the anatomical traits resolved at intraring level with daily temperature, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and precipitation during the 1943–2010 period. Tree‐ring width, number of cells per ring and cell wall thickness were positively affected by spring and summer daily mean and maximum temperature at the northern sites. These results agree with the well‐known positive effect of high temperatures on tree ring formation at high latitudes. However, we captured, for the first time in this region, the latent impact of water availability on xylem traits. Indeed, in all the four sites, cell lumen area showed positive correlations with daily precipitation (mostly at low latitude), and/or negative correlations with daily mean and maximum temperature and VPD (mostly at high latitude). We inferred that drought, due to high temperatures, low precipitations, or both, negatively affects cell enlargement across the closed boreal forest, including the northernmost sites. The production of tracheids with narrower lumen, potentially more resistant to cavitation, could increase xylem hydraulic safety under a warmer and drier climate. However, this would result in lower xylem conductivity, with consequent long‐term hydraulic deterioration, growth decline, and possibly lead to tree dieback, as observed in other forest ecosystems at lower latitudes.

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“…For example, climate impact modelling studies aim to, among others, represent processes and generate information using computer models. In terms of uncertainty, modelling studies routinely quantify uncertainties related to the imperfect knowledge of the system under investigation (Uusitalo et al 2015, Gray 2017, Marchand et al 2018. On the other hand, studies exploring how users assess available information and use it to make long-term decisions (hereafter, 'decision-making' studies) (Schmolke et al 2010) more rarely quantify uncertainties.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inconsistent recognition of uncertainty in studies of climate change impacts on forests

Petr

Vacchiano

Thom

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Background. Uncertainty about climate change impacts on forests can hinder mitigation and adaptation actions. Scientific enquiry typically involves assessments of uncertainties, yet different uncertainty components emerge in different studies. Consequently, inconsistent understanding of uncertainty among different climate impact studies (from the impact analysis to implementing solutions) can be an additional reason for delaying action. In this review we (a) expanded existing uncertainty assessment frameworks into one harmonised framework for characterizing uncertainty, (b) used this framework to identify and classify uncertainties in climate change impacts studies on forests, and (c) summarised the uncertainty assessment methods applied in those studies. Methods. We systematically reviewed climate change impact studies published between 1994 and 2016. We separated these studies into those generating information about climate change impacts on forests using models -'modelling studies', and those that used this information to design management actions-'decision-making studies'. We classified uncertainty across three dimensions: nature, level, and location, which can be further categorised into specific uncertainty types. Results. We found that different uncertainties prevail in modelling versus decision-making studies. Epistemic uncertainty is the most common nature of uncertainty covered by both types of studies, whereas ambiguity plays a pronounced role only in decision-making studies. Modelling studies equally investigate all levels of uncertainty, whereas decision-making studies mainly address scenario uncertainty and recognised ignorance. Finally, the main location of uncertainty for both modelling and decision-making studies is within the driving forces-representing, e.g. socioeconomic or policy changes. The most frequently used methods to assess uncertainty are expert elicitation, sensitivity and scenario analysis, but a full suite of methods exists that seems currently underutilized. Discussion & Synthesis. The misalignment of uncertainty types addressed by modelling and decision-making studies may complicate adaptation actions early in the implementation pathway. Furthermore, these differences can be a potential barrier for communicating research findings to decision-makers.

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Untangling methodological and scale considerations in growth and productivity trend estimates of Canada’s forests

Cited by 36 publications

References 166 publications

The structure of boreal old-growth forests changes at multiple spatial scales over decades

The structure of boreal old-growth forests changes at multiple spatial scales over decades

Wood anatomical traits in black spruce reveal latent water constraints on the boreal forest

Inconsistent recognition of uncertainty in studies of climate change impacts on forests

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