Untangling the changing impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on European COVID-19 trajectories

Ge, Yong; Zhang, Wenbin; Wu, Xilin; Ruktanonchai, Corrine W.; Liu, Haiyan; Wang, Jianghao; Song, Yongze; Liu, Mengxiao; Yan, Wei; Yang, Juan; Cleary, Eimear; Qader, Sarchil; Atuhaire, Fatumah; Ruktanonchai, Nick W.; Tatem, Andrew J.; Lai, Shengjie

doi:10.1038/s41467-022-30897-1

Cited by 82 publications

(66 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…Non-pharmaceutical interventions for reducing the probability of infectious contact are the primary strategies for stopping outbreaks when pharmaceutical tools, such as vaccines and medicines are scarce [ 3 ]. Due to the short-term existence of both natural and vaccine-induced immunity against SARS-CoV-2 [ 4 ], non-pharmaceutical interventions hold a significant role in containing the outbreak [ 5 ]. Although COVID-19 is a flu-like illness, its high transmissibility and pandemic nature significantly affect daily human life and communication in this fast-moving world [ 6 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolution and consequences of individual responses during the COVID-19 outbreak

et al. 2022

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In a long-lasting major disease outbreak such as that of COVID-19, the challenge for public health authorities is to keep people motivated and keen on following safety guidelines. In this study, a compartmental model with a heterogeneous transmission rate (based on awareness) is utilized to hypothesize about the public adoption of preventive guidelines. Three subsequent outbreaks in South Korea, Pakistan, and Japan were analyzed as case studies. The transmission, behavior change, and behavioral change ease rates of the disease were measured in these countries. The parameters were estimated using the maximum likelihood method with an additional identifiability analysis performed to determine the uniqueness of the estimated parameters for quantitatively comparing them during the first three waves of COVID-19. The mathematical analysis and simulation results show that individual responses had a significant effect on the outbreak. Individuals declining to follow the public health guidelines in Korea and Japan between the second and third waves contributed to making the third peak the highest of the three peaks. In Pakistan, however, individual responses to following public health guidelines were maintained between the second and third waves, resulting in the third peak being lower than the first, rather than being associated with the highest transmission rate. Thus, maintaining a high level of awareness is critical for containing the spread. Improvised public health campaigns are recommended to sustain individual attention and maintain a high level of awareness.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolution and consequences of individual responses during the COVID-19 outbreak

et al. 2022

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“…Other environmental factors can also impact VE, for example, the compliance with non-pharmaceutical interventions by the populations to prevent disease. Although it is difficult to quantify the exact relationship between non-pharmaceutical interventions and VE, some mathematical models [ 29 ] predict that the combined effect of both has resulted in a 53% reduction in reproduction numbers, but vaccinations and non-pharmaceutical interventions alone had a 38% and 35% reduction, respectively. Another set of factors that can confound VE results are host factors.…”

Section: Environmental Factors That Can Impact Vementioning

confidence: 99%

Considerations in Understanding Vaccine Effectiveness

Lau

2022

Vaccines

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Although vaccine effectiveness reports are essential to assessing policies on SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, several factors can affect our interpretation of the results. These include the waning of antibodies, the prevailing viral variants at the time of the study, and COVID-19 disease prevalence in the population. Disease prevalence significantly impacts absolute risk reduction and could skew expected efficacy when increased disease prevalence inflates the absolute risk reduction in the face of a constant relative risk reduction. These factors must be considered in the interpretation of vaccine effectiveness to better understand how vaccines can improve disease prevention among the population. We highlight the impact of various factors on vaccine effectiveness.

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“…The recent outbreak of COVID-19 showed the importance of knowing the process of how a virus spreads in a population 1 . If the exact path a virus takes from person to person is known, better containment strategies, vaccination plans and preparations for future epidemics could be developed 6 , 13 , 25 , 28 . However, a process that might seem simple – one person infects the next – can quickly become complex in a network such as human society.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the importance of structural equivalence in temporal networks for epidemic forecasting

Kister

Tonetto

2023

Sci Rep

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Understanding how a disease spreads in a population is a first step to preparing for future epidemics, and machine learning models are a useful tool to analyze the spreading process of infectious diseases. For effective predictions of these spreading processes, node embeddings are used to encode networks based on the similarity between nodes into feature vectors, i.e., higher dimensional representations of human contacts. In this work, we evaluated the impact of homophily and structural equivalence on embedding for disease spread prediction by testing them on real world temporal human contact networks. Our results show that structural equivalence is a useful indicator for the infection status of a person. Embeddings that are balanced towards the preservation of structural equivalence performed better than those that focus on the preservation of homophily, with an average improvement of 0.1042 in the f1-score (95% CI 0.051 to 0.157). This indicates that structurally equivalent nodes behave similarly during an epidemic (e.g., expected time of a disease onset). This observation could greatly improve predictions of future epidemics where only partial information about contacts is known, thereby helping determine the risk of infection for different groups in the population.

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Untangling the changing impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on European COVID-19 trajectories

Cited by 82 publications

References 52 publications

Evolution and consequences of individual responses during the COVID-19 outbreak

Evolution and consequences of individual responses during the COVID-19 outbreak

Considerations in Understanding Vaccine Effectiveness

On the importance of structural equivalence in temporal networks for epidemic forecasting

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