Unveil the economic impact of policy reversals: the China experience

Abstract

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to reveal the economic impact of policy reversals related to market liberalization reforms in China. Design/methodology/approach To perform the analysis, the authors hand-collect 59 financial market liberalization policy reversals from 1999 to 2017. These reversals are related to the liberalization of the stock market, bond market, derivatives market, forex market, lending market, and real estate market etc. The authors employ a stylized equilibrium interest rate model from Li et al. (2013) to deduce the impact of policy reversals on economic growth and the associated volatility after the announcement of each policy reversal. Findings First, the authors discover that about half of reversals are related to some tradeoff between the economic growth and the volatility associated with growth. Second, the authors also find that about a quarter of the reversals are detrimental to both the growth and the stability. These reversals, if known to policymakers, should be entirely avoided or corrected. Third, using a simple diagnostic test, the authors can identify detrimental reversals at the intra-day frequency by computing the change of the term spread and the volatility before and after the reversals. Practical implications The findings are useful for identifying effective policymaking in developing countries where mature democratic and rigorous policymaking processes are often lacking and formulating economic policies is challenging. The findings suggest that policy reversals serve China well by improving the quality of the policy made without posing destructive consequences to the existing economic infrastructure. This empirical evidence is important for a better understanding of the benefits of policy reversals on economic growth. Social implications The empirical procedure provides a timely and objective evaluation of policy shifts, allowing for the general public to discern the rationale behind the policy decisions. Consequently, stakeholders’ trust and confidence in policymakers is enhanced so that the probability of the successful implementation of structural reforms may increase in these developing countries. Originality/value First, the results reveal some successful examples of Chinese policymaking in the path of liberalizing financial market. The authors find that the Chinese liberalization policy flip-flops have resulted in a more balanced growth on some occasions with reduced growth rate and volatility. Second, the proposed methodology provides an objective evaluation of policy shifts, allowing for the public to infer the general direction of the impact generated by policy shifts. Subsequently, stakeholders’ trust and confidence in policymakers can be enhanced and/or restored if the process of finding a successful path of structural reforms is unambiguous. Finally, the interest rate model also provides a timely method to evaluate the impact of policy shifts at an intra-day frequency, whereas most macroeconomic indicators are available at longer frequencies such as monthly or quarterly. The timeliness in understanding the economic consequences of policy reversals can be critical to prevent the destructive consequences of bad ones.

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