Unveiling Economic Distress in South Asia: Does Stock Market Performance Matter?

Abstract

This study explores economic misery determinants in South Asia from 1990 to 2022, focusing on the moderating role of stock market performance. Economic misery, the dependent variable, is analyzed in relation to stock market performance, interest rates, education, population density, economic growth, remittances, and the interaction between stock market performance and interest rates. Using an autoregressive distributed lag model, results reveal shaded connections. Stock market performance shows a non-significant negative coefficient, while interest rates exhibit a substantial negative coefficient, indicating a strong association with reduced economic misery. Unexpectedly, education levels have a positive coefficient, while economic growth, population density, and remittances display negative coefficients, suggesting their roles in mitigating economic distress. The moderation effect of stock market performance and interest rates is notably significant, emphasizing their interplay in alleviating economic distress. Policymakers are urged to implement prudent monetary policies for interest rate stability, prioritize education, foster economic growth, plan urban development, and promote diversified income sources. Transparent and stable stock markets should be ensured through strategies enhancing investor confidence, establishing safeguards against market manipulation, and incentivizing long-term investments.