Unveiling India's Ageing Mosaic: State-level Projections Revealing Regional Variations until 2031

Abstract

Population ageing is an inevitable consequence of demographic transitions and declining fertility causes a rising burden of ageing. The goal of the present study is to project the ageing index of various states across the country up to the year 2031. In addition, the study projects the year by which different states will reach the standard level of aging. Data for this study were taken from the 2001 and 2011 census of India. Using simple trend extrapolation techniques, we produced projections of ageing indices up to 2031; and then we projected when different states would reach the standard level of ageing (aging of Kerala in 2011). The results showed that there will be a change in the age structure of the population from 2011 to 2031, with an increase of 6% in the working-age group (15–59 years) and 5% in the older population (60 or more years), but a decline of 11.2% in the children ages 0–14 years. Southern and other states such as Punjab and Himachal Pradesh are likely to attain standard levels of ageing in the next few years. However, northern states are expected to take more years to achieve it.This is the time to start planning for the future burden of the old-age population across the country and arrange adequate health infrastructure for the older population in the future.