Update (1.2) to ANDURIL and ANDURYL: Performance improvements and a graphical user interface

Rongen, Guus; Hart, Cornelis Marcel Pieter ’t; Leontaris, Georgios; Morales-Nápoles, Oswaldo

doi:10.1016/j.softx.2020.100497

Cited by 11 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…SEJ uses the collective knowledge of experts (here school teachers) to estimate quantities of interest and their uncertainties, and can be performed rapidly during crises to provide essential information to models and policy makers [ 21 ]. Experts' responses to a set of test questions with knowable results are used to score experts in terms of their individual statistical performance and their target item judgements are then combined jointly, using these performance scores, to derive a pooled ‘Decision Maker’ [ 21 ]; the latter represents associated groupwise judgement uncertainties through empirical cumulative distribution functions (eCDFs) [ 22 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Alternative COVID-19 mitigation measures in school classrooms: analysis using an agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission

et al. 2022

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The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has impacted children's education, with schools required to implement infection control measures that have led to periods of absence and classroom closures. We developed an agent-based epidemiological model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a school classroom that allows us to quantify projected infection patterns within primary school classrooms, and related uncertainties. Our approach is based on a contact model constructed using random networks, informed by structured expert judgement. The effectiveness of mitigation strategies in suppressing infection outbreaks and limiting pupil absence are considered. COVID-19 infections in primary schools in England in autumn 2020 were re-examined and the model was then used to estimate infection levels in autumn 2021, as the Delta variant was emerging and it was thought likely that school transmission would play a major role in an incipient new wave of the epidemic. Our results were in good agreement with available data. These findings indicate that testing-based surveillance is more effective than bubble quarantine, both for reducing transmission and avoiding pupil absence, even accounting for insensitivity of self-administered tests. Bubble quarantine entails large numbers of absences, with only modest impact on classroom infections. However, maintaining reduced contact rates within the classroom can have a major benefit for managing COVID-19 in school settings.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Open Sci. 9: 211985 then combined jointly, using these performance scores, to derive a pooled 'Decision Maker' [21]; the latter represents associated groupwise judgement uncertainties through empirical cumulative distribution functions (eCDFs) [22].…”

Section: Classroom Transmission Networkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Alternative COVID-19 mitigation measures in school classrooms: analysis using an agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission

et al. 2022

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“…SEJ uses the collective knowledge of experts (here school teachers) to estimate quantities of interest and their uncertainties, and can be performed rapidly during crises to provide essential information to models and policy makers [11]. Experts' responses to a set of test questions with knowable results are used to score experts in terms of their individual statistical performance and their target item judgements are then combined jointly, using these performance scores, to derive a pooled 'Decision Maker' [11]; that the latter represents associated group-wise judgement uncertainties through empirical cumulative distribution functions (eCDFs) [12].…”

Section: Classroom Transmission Networkmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Maker' [11]; that the latter represents associated group-wise judgement uncertainties through empirical cumulative distribution functions (eCDFs) [12].…”

Section: Classroom Transmission Networkmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Alternative Covid-19 mitigation measures in school classrooms: analysis using an agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission

Woodhouse

Aspinall

Sparks

et al. 2021

Preprint

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The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has had major impacts on children's education, with schools required to implement infection control measures that have led to long periods of absence and classroom closures. We develop an agent-based epidemiological model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission that is applied to model infection within school classrooms, with a contact model constructed using random networks informed by structured expert judgement. Mitigation strategies to control infection are modelled to allow analysis of their effectiveness in supressing infection outbreaks and in limiting pupil absence. The model is applied to re-examine Covid-19 in schools in the UK in autumn 2020, and to forecast infection levels in autumn 2021 when the more infectious Delta-variant is dominant and school transmission is likely to play a major role in a new wave of the epidemic. Our results indicate that testing-based surveillance of infections in the classroom population with isolation of positive cases is a more effective mitigation measure than bubble quarantine both for reducing transmission in schools and for avoiding pupil absence, even accounting for insensitivity of self-administered tests. Bubble quarantine results in large numbers of pupils absent from school, with only modest impact of classroom infection. However, maintaining a reduced contact rate within the classroom has a major beneficial impact for managing Covid-19 in school settings.

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Recommendations on the Use of Structured Expert Elicitation Protocols for Healthcare Decision Making: A Good Practices Report of an ISPOR Task Force

Soares,

Colson,

Bojke

et al. 2024

Value in Health

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Update (1.2) to ANDURIL and ANDURYL: Performance improvements and a graphical user interface

Cited by 11 publications

References 4 publications

Alternative COVID-19 mitigation measures in school classrooms: analysis using an agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission

Alternative COVID-19 mitigation measures in school classrooms: analysis using an agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission

Alternative Covid-19 mitigation measures in school classrooms: analysis using an agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission

Recommendations on the Use of Structured Expert Elicitation Protocols for Healthcare Decision Making: A Good Practices Report of an ISPOR Task Force

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