Update to COVID-19 serologic testing : FAQs and caveats

Kadkhoda, Kamran

doi:10.3949/ccjm.87a.20054-up

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…However, these studies are sparse in time and space and their use is not recommended in low prevalence settings as results could lead to a false sense of security regarding the extent of immunity in the population impeding mitigation strategies and interventions. In addition, tests conducted before seroconversion or after antibodies have waned can lead to false positives and false negatives [14].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inferring the true number of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Japan

McKenzie

Shoukat

Wong

et al. 2022

Journal of Infection and Chemotherapy

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inferring the true number of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Japan

McKenzie

Shoukat

Wong

et al. 2022

Journal of Infection and Chemotherapy

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“…However, these studies are sparse in time and space and their use is not recommended in low prevalence settings as results could lead to a false sense of security regarding the extent of immunity in the population [13] impeding mitigation strategies and interventions. In addition, tests conducted before seroconversion or after antibodies have waned can lead to false positives and false negatives [14].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inferring the true number of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Japan

McKenzie

Shoukat

Wong

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Introduction. In Japan, as of December 31, 2021, more than 1.73 million laboratory-confirmed cases have been reported. However, the actual number of infections is likely to be under-ascertained due to the epidemiological characteristics such as mild and subclinical infections and limited testing availability in the early days of the pandemic. In this study, we infer the true number of infections in Japan between January 16, 2020, and December 31, 2021 , using a statistical modelling framework that combines data on reported cases and fatalities. Methods. We used reported daily COVID-19 deaths stratified into 8 distinct age-groups and age-specific infection fatality ratios (IFR) to impute the true number of infections. Estimates of IFR were informed from published studies as well seroprevalence studies conducted in Japan. To account for the uncertainty in IFR estimates, we sampled values from relevant distributions. Results. We estimated that as of December 31, 2021, 2.90 million (CrI: 1.77 to 4.27 million) people had been infected in Japan, which is 1.68 times higher than the 1.73 million reported cases. Our meta-analysis confirmed that these findings were consistent with the intermittent seroprevalence studies conducted in Japan. Conclusions. We have estimated that a substantial number of COVID-19 infections in the country were unreported, particularly in adults. Our approach provides a more realistic assessment of the true underlying burden of COVID-19. The results of this study can be used as fundamental components to strengthen population health control and surveillance measures.

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