Updating outdated predictive accident models

Wood, A G; Mountain, Linda; Connors, Richard D.; Maher, Michael J.; Ropkins, Karl

doi:10.1016/j.aap.2013.02.028

Cited by 17 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…Although increasing model complexity may provide better insight into modeled safety performance, additional predictors have often been nonbeneficial. For example, studies of UK single carriageways (undivided two-lane roads) from the 1990s found that only a small fraction of explanatory variables significantly improved the model fit (7); a recent follow-up study confirmed that the best-fitting models did not include any of geometric features (8). Similar conclusions were reached by Finnish researchers in the 1990s (9) and dictated the use of simple models since then (10).…”

mentioning

confidence: 88%

Developing Updatable Crash Prediction Model for Network Screening: Case Study of Czech Two-Lane Rural Road Segments

Ambros

Valentová

Sedoník

2016

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation R

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This paper focuses on application of crash prediction models in network screening. The two main questions were ( a) What variables should be involved in the model? and ( b) What length should the modeled period be? Answers to these questions should provide guidelines for developing an updatable crash prediction model (i.e., a model that is both reliable and simple so that its updating for periodical network screening is not highly demanding). Data on approximately 1,000 km (600 mi) of a two-lane rural-road network from South Moravia, Czech Republic, were used. On the basis of 8 years of annual crash frequencies, together with exposure and geometrical variables, several variants of prediction models were developed. To study the quality of the models, a series of consistency tests was applied relative to comparison of the models themselves as well as to their diagnostic performance. As a result, simple crash prediction models (that included traffic volume, segment length, and curvature change rate) were found sufficient for network screening. If one supposes that length and curvature are unlikely to change often, only traffic volume data need to be periodically updated. Consistency analyses indicate that this period should be 4 years. Under these conditions, models are being applied in the studied region. Further planned activities include extensions to intersections and also to other Czech regions.

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confidence: 88%

Developing Updatable Crash Prediction Model for Network Screening: Case Study of Czech Two-Lane Rural Road Segments

Ambros

Valentová

Sedoník

2016

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation R

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“…Furthermore, problems can be expected with regard to the research database. High-quality data in large quantities for road characteristics, traffic flow, and crashes are rarely readily available and compatibility issues arise when combining different datasets of road characteristics and traffic flow [53]. Yannis et al 2010 [54] improved multilevel negative binomial models to inquire into the effects of the strength of the police enforcement on the number of road accidents during 1998-2002 at the regional level in Greece.Nikiforos et al 2010 [55] aimed at evolving crash prediction models and Accident Modification Factors (AMF) for multilane roads particularly lane widths, type, median width, and shoulder width.…”

Section: Crash Prediction Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Review of the Traffic Accidents and Related Practices Worldwide

Mohammed¹,

Ambak²,

Mosa³

et al. 2019

TOTJ

109

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A traffic accident, a traffic collision or crash occurs when a vehicle collides with another vehicle, pedestrian, animal, road barriers, or any stationary obstruction such as a tree or a utility pole. Traffic collisions may result in injury, death, vehicle damage and possession damage. Motor vehicle collisions cause death and disability as well as a financial burden. Traffic accidents cause many losses especially of human life, property damages, and loss of resources. Indeed, even in strife influenced countries such as Afghanistan, Libya, Pakistan, and Yemen, road traffic remains the most common cause of fatal injuries, causing between two and eight times more fatalities than war and lawful mediation. The World Health Organization (WHO) 2013 assessed the traffic casualty rate in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) to be the second most elevated rate universally after the African Region and extending a few other countries in the region. The aim of this paper was to enrich the global highway safety knowledge by revealing the catastrophic impact of traffic accidents on the economy of the societies and the safety of the common worldwide.

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“…Schwemer, 2000), road safety (e.g. Wood et al, 2013) and ionospheric physics (e.g. Dorrian et al, 2019).…”

Section: Overview Of Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical models of the variability of plasma in the topside ionosphere: 1. Development and optimisation

Wood,

Donegan-Lawley,

Clausen

et al. 2024

J. Space Weather Space Clim.

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This work presents statistical models of the variability of plasma in the topside ionosphere based on observations made by the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Swarm satellites. The models were developed in the “Swarm Variability of Ionospheric Plasma” (Swarm-VIP) project within the European Space Agency's Swarm+4D-Ionosphere framework. The configuration of the Swarm satellites, their near-polar orbits and the data products developed, enable studies of the spatial variability of the ionosphere at multiple scale sizes. The statistical modelling technique of Generalised Linear Modelling was used to create models of both the electron density and measures of the variability of the plasma structures at horizontal spatial scales between 20 km and 100 km. Despite being developed using the Swarm data, the models provide predictions that are independent of these data. Separate models were created for low, middle, auroral and polar latitudes. The models make predictions based on heliogeophysical variables, which act as proxies for the solar and geomagnetic processes. The first and most significant term in the majority of the models was a proxy for solar activity. The most common second term varied with the latitudinal region. This was the Solar Zenith Angle (SZA) in the polar region, a measure of latitude in the auroral region, solar time in the mid-latitude region and a measure of latitude in the equatorial region. Other, less significant terms in the models covered a range of proxies for the solar wind, geomagnetic activity and location. In this paper the formulation, optimisation and evaluation of these models is discussed. The models show very little bias, with a mean error of zero to two decimal places in 14 out of 20 cases. The models capture some, but not all, of the trends present in the data, with Pearson correlation coefficients of up to 0.75 between the observations and the model predictions. The models also capture some, but not all, of the variability of the ionospheric plasma, as indicated by the precision, which ranged between 0.20 and 0.83. The addition of the thermospheric density as an explanatory variable in the models improved the precision in the polar and auroral regions. It is suggested that, if the thermosphere could be observed at a higher spatial resolution, then even more of the variability of the plasma structures could be captured by statistical models. The formulation and optimisation of the models are presented in this paper. The capability of the model in reproducing the expected climatological features of the topside ionosphere, in supporting GNSS-based ionospheric observations and the performance of the model against TIE-GCM, are provided in a companion paper (Spogli et al., 2023).

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Updating outdated predictive accident models

Cited by 17 publications

References 11 publications

Developing Updatable Crash Prediction Model for Network Screening: Case Study of Czech Two-Lane Rural Road Segments

Developing Updatable Crash Prediction Model for Network Screening: Case Study of Czech Two-Lane Rural Road Segments

A Review of the Traffic Accidents and Related Practices Worldwide

Statistical models of the variability of plasma in the topside ionosphere: 1. Development and optimisation

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