UPI-LT: Enhancing Information Propagation Predictions in Social Networks Through User Influence and Temporal Dynamics

Abstract

The TEST pervasive use of social media has highlighted the importance of developing sophisticated models for early information warning systems within online communities. Despite the advancements that have been made, existing models often fail to adequately consider the pivotal role of network topology and temporal dynamics in information dissemination. This results in suboptimal predictions of content propagation patterns. This study introduces the User Propagation Influence-based Linear Threshold (UPI-LT) model, which represents a novel approach to the simulation of information spread. The UPI-LT model introduces an innovative approach to consider the number of active neighboring nodes, incorporating a time decay factor to account for the evolving influence of information over time. The model’s technical innovations include the incorporation of a homophily ratio, which assesses the similarity between users, and a dynamic adjustment of activation thresholds, which reflect a deeper understanding of social influence mechanisms. Empirical results on real-world datasets validate the UPI-LT model’s enhanced predictive capabilities for information spread.