Upward elevation and northwest range shifts for alpine Meconopsis species in the Himalaya–Hengduan Mountains region

Abstract

Climate change may impact the distribution of species by shifting their ranges to higher elevations or higher latitudes. The impacts on alpine plant species may be particularly profound due to a potential lack of availability of future suitable habitat. To identify how alpine species have responded to climate change during the past century as well as to predict how they may react to possible global climate change scenarios in the future, we investigate the climatic responses of seven species of Meconopsis , a representative genus endemic in the alpine meadow and subnival region of the Himalaya–Hengduan Mountains. We analyzed past elevational shifts, as well as projected shifts in longitude, latitude, elevation, and range size using historical specimen records and species distribution modeling under optimistic (RCP 4.5) and pessimistic (RCP 8.5) scenarios across three general circulation models for 2070. Our results indicate that across all seven species, there has been an upward shift in mean elevation of 302.3 m between the pre‐1970s (1922–1969) and the post‐1970s (1970–2016). The model predictions suggest that the future suitable climate space will continue to shift upwards in elevation (as well as northwards and westwards) by 2070. While for most of the analyzed species, the area of suitable climate space is predicted to expand under the optimistic emission scenario, the area contracts, or, at best, shows little change under the pessimistic scenario. Species such as M. punicea , which already occupy high latitudes, are consistently predicted to experience a contraction of suitable climate space across all the models by 2070 and may consequently deserve particular attention by conservation strategies. Collectively, our results suggest that the alpine high‐latitude species analyzed here have already been significantly impacted by climate change and that these trends may continue over the coming decades.

The fate of Meconopsis species in the Tibeto‐Himalayan region under future climate change

“…However, unlike our results, He et al. (2019) did not show that the central QTP proper as a suitable area in the future, possibly due to differences in the research methods.…”

“…A recent study by He et al. (2019) modeled the potential distribution of Meconopsis species under climate change through ecological niche models. Building on this, we used CNFA to assess the vulnerability of Meconopsis species to climate change, identifying potential future climate refugia.…”

Incorporating Local Adaptation Into Species Distribution Modeling of Paeonia mairei, an Endemic Plant to China

“…The elevation gradient of species composition is generally considered to be driven by the corresponding temperature gradient, so species ranges are expected and projected to shift to higher altitudes as climate warms (Lenoir et al, 2008). Indeed, numerous plant species have been reported to move toward higher elevations due to elevated temperatures (Klanderud and Birks, 2003;Lenoir et al, 2008;Wolf et al, 2016;Zhang et al, 2018;He et al, 2019). The areas of suitable distribution of P_West were all predicted to reach a value slightly above the current level by the 2070s under most RCP scenarios ( Figure 6), which indicates that global warming might benefit P_West.…”

Altitudinal biodiversity patterns of seed plants along Gongga Mountain in the southeastern Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau

“…Gongga) with a broad elevational gradient (from ca. For instance, montane species may shift upwards and their distributional range may be lost under climate warming (He et al, 2019;Liang et al, 2018). ), located between the southeastern edge of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) and the Sichuan Basin, is one of the highest mountains in the Himalaya-Hengduan Mountains region and southwest China.…”

“…Plant distributions in mountainous areas are more easily affected by climate change. For instance, montane species may shift upwards and their distributional range may be lost under climate warming (He et al, 2019;Liang et al, 2018). Exploring the elevational patterns in plant species and phylogenetic diversity in Mt.…”