Ural Blocking and the Amplitude of Wintertime Cold Surges over North China Detected by a Cooling Algorithm

Abstract

A new algorithm is proposed to estimate the cooling amplitude over North China induced by each Ural blocking event. Taking full account of potential transient temperature rises during the cooling process and the lag time of cooling relative to the blocking, this algorithm provides more detailed analysis which should not be possible by using former methods. The amplitude of the Ural blocking-related cooling events is found to have a broad distribution. Further, although most Ural blocking events lead to severe cold surges over North China, the number of Ural blocking events that do not induce significant cooling over North China cannot be ignored. The possible reasons for the wide range in cooling amplitude are explored in terms of the lifetimes and geographical centers of the blocking highs, the circulation patterns preceding the onset of the cooling events, and the snowfall associated with cooling events. Larger amplitude cooling events occur in Ural blocking highs that have longer lifetimes and northwestward displacements of their geographical centers. The northward displacement of a Ural blocking center favors the advection of extremely cold air from the Arctic regions, which accumulates in West Siberia and subsequently gives rise to the most severe cold surges over North China. The lack of activities of cold surges before the blocking-related cooling events not only amplifies the cooling amplitude directly, but also increases the occurrence probabilities of snowfalls through its modulation on the local specific humidity. The increased albedo and subsequent snow-melt induced cooling further amplify the cooling amplitude.