Urban Growth Prediction by Land Suitability Index for Erbil City using Remote Sensing data, road networks and GIS Techniques

Abstract

Using remote sensing data and Geographical Information System (GIS) methods, this study tries to anticipate the optimal urban expansion areas in Erbil city. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) concept was used to create a map of urban expansion. Several social, economic, environmental, utility and physical characteristics including land cover, roads, slope, aspect, elevation, soil texture, power lines, water and exclusion, were combined to construct a final land suitability index map. ASTER Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was also followed to derive slope and aspect variables. While organic growth is prominent, considerable growth is expected to occur around the outskirts of current settlements. This research highlights the use of modelbased prediction of urban sprawl in the development of the city’s master plan and road network plan. The findings of this study can help planners and policymakers adopt preventative or regulating measures in advance and make better informed strategic decisions.