Urban land use transitions: Examining change over 19 years using sequence analysis. The case of South-East Queensland, Australia

Abstract

The land use mosaic that characterises our urban environments is complex and subject to regular and on-going change and transition. Land use change takes place as cities seek to meet ever evolving population, economic, social, and environmental objectives. However, our empirical capacity to map, measure and monitor the geographical shifts in land use at a fine spatial granularity and how these aggregate across the urban environment remain very limited. In this paper, we draw on parcel level land use data for a large metropolitan region in Australia for a 19-year period and employ sequence analysis to delineate the location and timing of shifts in land use. Results reveal both similarities between jurisdictional regions alongside the unique land use transitions that go some way to highlight context specific mechanisms. This study demonstrates the utility of our empirical approach in its capacity to inform regional development strategies through revealing the type, timing and location of land use change in relation to land use policy and planning goals.