Urban metabolism and dynamic modeling: pioneering approaches for resilient planning in the Greater Cairo Region

Abstract

In Egypt, planning practice is physical and rooted in design principles, resulting in plans that seldom consider the impact of land use and land cover changes on the environment. Most used planning models are static. The paper offers urban metabolism and dynamic modeling as an alternative mode for decision making. It models population growth and expanded economic activities that characterize rapid urbanization and induce changes in land use affecting various urban economic sectors using the Greater Cairo Region (GCR) as a case study. Urban transportation contributes to climate change. The authors used secondary data and satellite images to detect land use and cover changes since 2005. After building a stock-flow diagram to describe the system’s structure, they used dynamic modeling and GIS to assess the impact of transportation on air quality. Results indicate that the population of GCR will range from 33.348 to 40.334 million in 2050. The emissions from transportation will be around 52,521.2 Gg, which is beyond the ability of the region’s ecosystems to store carbon. These findings shed doubt about the ability of GCR to reach carbon neutrality and, therefore, call for strict measures to control emitting GHGs and change in planning practices and education. Graphical abstract