Urban thermal risk reduction: Developing and implementing spatially explicit services for resilient cities

Keramitsoglou, Iphigenia; Sismanidis, Panagiotis; Analitis, Antonis; Butler, Tayrne; Founda, Dimitra; Giannakopoulos, Christos; Giannatou, Eleni; Karali, Anna; Katsouyanni, Klea; Kendrovski, Vladimir; Lemesios, Giannis; Myrivili, Eleni; Ordoñez, Dolores; Varotsos, Konstantinos V.; Vlastou, Georgia; Kiranoudis, Chris T.

doi:10.1016/j.scs.2017.06.006

Cited by 35 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…Secondly, such an indicator can serve as a basis to decision making on European level, assisting with prioritizing the investments and other efforts in the adaptation strategy. Thirdly, this study communicates the magnitude (property of HWMId) of future heat and as such contributes to raise awareness about HWs since they are still often not perceived as a serious risk (Keramitsoglou et al, 2017).…”

Section: Wavesmentioning

confidence: 72%

“…Even though HWs are often still not perceived as serious risk (Keramitsoglou et al, 2017) they were found as the deadliest form of extreme weather in US (Habeeb et al, 2015) and there is no reason to assume that this will be different in Europe. Managing the impacts in cities is of paramount importance (UN-habitat, 2010) because it is the metropolitan space where the most people will encounter the extreme heat (Schatz & Kucharik, 2015) and it is the nature of urban space what enhances the impacts of larger scale synoptic phenomenon (e.g.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The elderly, young, the individuals with preexisting chronic conditions, communities with weak socioeconomic status, people with mental disorders and isolated individuals are commonly listed as the vulnerable disadvantaged impact groups (Basu, 2009;Habeeb et al, 2015;Keramitsoglou et al, 2017). Especially the aging factor is emphasized in many studies (e.g.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The results of this research stage are expected to provide further insights on the impacts of extreme temperatures and related population exposure across all the European capitals. Moreover, we expect to raise awareness about HWs, since they are still often not perceived as a serious risk (Keramitsoglou et al, 2017).…”

Section: Objectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There have been numerous efforts to provide a robust HW definition (e.g. Alexander et al, 2006;Frich et al, 2002;Hansen et al, 2008;Kyselý, 2010;Lhotka & Kyselý, 2015;Lhotka et al, 2018;Meehl & Tebaldi, 2004;Orlowsky & Seneviratne, 2012;Perkins et al, 2012;Russo & Sterl, 2011;Russo et al, 2014Russo et al, , 2015Schär et al, 2004;Sillmann et al, 2013a (Keramitsoglou et al, 2017).…”

Section: Climate Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate change and impacts in the urban systems

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Urban systems are not only major drivers of climate change, but also impact hotspots. The processes of global warming and urban population growth make our urban agglomerations vulnerable to chain reactions triggered by climate related hazards. Hence, the reliable and costeffective assessment of future climate impact is of high importance. Two major approaches emerge from the literature: i) detailed spatially explicit assessments, and ii) more holistic approaches consistently assessing multiple cities. In this multidisciplinary thesis both approaches were addressed. Firstly, we discuss the underlying reasons and main challenges of the applicability of downscaling procedures of climate projections in the process of urban planning. While the climate community has invested significant effort to provide downscaling techniques yielding localised information on future climate extreme events, these methods are not widely exploited in the process of urban planning. The first part of this research attempts to help bridge the gap between the communities of urban planners and climatologists. First, we summarize the rationale for such cooperation, supporting the argument that the spatial scale represents an important linkage between urban and climate science in the process of designing an urban space. Secondly, we introduce the main families of downscaling techniques and their application on climate projections, also providing the references to profound studies in the field. Thirdly, special attention is given to previous works focused on the utilization of downscaled ensembles of climate simulations in urban agglomerations. Finally, we identify three major challenges of the wider utilization of climate projections and downscaling techniques, namely: (i) the scale mismatch between data needs and data availability, (ii) the terminology, and (iii) the IT bottleneck. The practical implications of these issues are discussed in the context of urban studies. The second part of this work is devoted to the assessment of impacts of extreme temperatures across the European capital cities. In warming Europe, we are witnessing a growth in urban population with aging trend, which will make the society more vulnerable to extreme heat waves. In the period 1950-2015 the occurrence of extreme heat waves increased across European capitals. As an example, Moscow was hit by the strongest heat wave of the present era, killing more than ten thousand people. Here we focus on larger metropolitan areas of European capitals. By using an ensemble of eight EURO-CORDEX models under the RCP8.5 scenario, we calculate a suite of temperature based climate indices. We introduce a ranking procedure based on ensemble predictions using the mean of metropolitan grid cells for each capital, and socioeconomic variables as a proxy to quantify the future impact. Results show that all the investigated European metropolitan areas will be more vulnerable to extreme heat in the coming decades. Based on the impact ranking, the results reveal that in near, but mainly in di...

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Section: Wavesmentioning

confidence: 72%

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Objectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Climate Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate change and impacts in the urban systems

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A simple high-resolution heat-stress forecast for Seoul, Korea: coupling climate information with an operational numerical weather prediction model

2020

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Climate change impacts on thermal stress in four climatically diverse European cities

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The thermal conditions that prevail in cities pose a number of challenges to urban residents and policy makers related to quality of life, health and welfare as well as to sustainable urban development. However, the changes in thermal stress due to climate change are probably not uniform among cities with different background climates. In this work, a comparative analysis of observed and projected thermal stress (cold stress, heat stress, no thermal stress) across four European cities (Helsinki, Rotterdam, Vienna, and Athens), which are representative of different geographical and climatic regions of the continent, for a recent period (1975 − 2004) and two future periods (2029 − 2058, 2069 − 2098) has been conducted. Applying a rational thermal index (Universal Thermal Climate Index) and considering two models of the EURO-CORDEX experiment (RCA4-MOHC, RCA4-MPI) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5, RCP8.5), the projected future changes in thermal conditions are inspected. The distribution of thermal stress in the current climate varies greatly between the cities, reflecting their climatic and urban heterogeneity. In the future climate, a reduction in the frequency of cold stress is expected across all cities, ranging between − 2.9% and − 16.2%. The projected increase in the frequency of optimal thermal conditions increases with increasing latitude, while the projected increase in the frequency of heat stress (ranging from + 0.2 to + 14.6%) decreases with increasing latitudes. Asymmetrical changes in cold- and heat-related stress between cities were found to affect the annual percentage of optimal (no thermal stress) conditions in future. Although future projections are expected to partly bridge the gap between the less-privileged cities (with respect to annual frequency of optimal thermal conditions) like Helsinki and Rotterdam and the more privileged ones like Athens, the former will still lag behind on an annual basis.

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Urban thermal risk reduction: Developing and implementing spatially explicit services for resilient cities

Cited by 35 publications

References 53 publications

Climate change and impacts in the urban systems

Climate change and impacts in the urban systems

A simple high-resolution heat-stress forecast for Seoul, Korea: coupling climate information with an operational numerical weather prediction model

Climate change impacts on thermal stress in four climatically diverse European cities

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