Urban Transport Dynamics During COVID-19: Examining Subway Ridership and Road Congestion Trends in Beijing Amidst Varied Built Environments

Abstract

This study delves into the profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on subway ridership and road congestion in Beijing, with a specific focus on the moderating role of the built environment. Utilizing panel data regression models, our analysis encompasses the daily average subway ridership at 157 stations over 366 days, alongside corresponding average congestion indices. The study integrates a comprehensive set of variables including COVID-19 case numbers, public search trends, various emergency response levels, and control variables such as the density of work, residence, and entertainment tourism areas. Our findings reveal a significant downturn in subway ridership and a decrease in road congestion during the pandemic, with these effects being more pronounced in high-density residential and commercial areas. The study indicates that the built environment plays a crucial role in shaping travel patterns during such a public health crisis. Specifically, areas with high work and residential density experienced a substantial reduction in subway usage, while regions with elevated entertainment and tourism density witnessed an increase in private vehicle usage. The temporal analysis of the data presents further insights. The initial stages of the pandemic saw a steep decline in subway ridership, suggesting an immediate reaction to the outbreak and associated restrictions. As the pandemic progressed, there was evidence of gradual adaptation in travel behavior, with a slow recovery in subway ridership and changes in road congestion patterns. Moreover, the study highlights the varying impact of COVID-19 across different stages of the pandemic. In the early phase, stringent lockdown measures and high public fear significantly influenced mobility patterns. However, in the later stages, as the public adapted to the ‘new normal,’ there was a notable shift in travel preferences, with a gradual return to public transit and changes in congestion levels. Overall, this research provides comprehensive insights into how a global health crisis can reshape urban transportation dynamics. It underscores the necessity for adaptive urban planning and policy-making that can effectively respond to such unprecedented challenges, taking into consideration the diverse needs of different urban areas and stages of public health emergencies.