Urban Tree Mortality: A Literature Review

Hilbert, Deborah R.; Roman, Lara A.; Koeser, Andrew K.; Vogt, Jess; Doorn, Natalie van

doi:10.48044/jauf.2019.015

Cited by 61 publications

(48 citation statements)

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“…The joint impact of maximum mortality and mortality debt is best illustrated by a series of examples. Estimates of street tree natural mortality range around 2.4-2.6% per year (Hilbert et al 2019). Within a 30-year window, this would amount to roughly 53% natural street tree mortality.…”

Section: Text Boxesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Given a 50-year mortality debt for defoliators, the maximum mortality above background rates by 2050 is (16.46% / 50) * 20 years = 6.58%. While these estimates are much lower, many host trees of sap feeders and defoliators are very common, and this mortality could very well be inflating the perceived background mortality rates of these host trees measured in (Hilbert et al 2019).…”

Section: Text Boxesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Hotspots of pest-induced US urban tree death, 2020-2050

Hudgins

Koch

Ambrose

et al. 2021

Preprint

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With 70% of the global population in urban centers, the ‘greening’ of cities is central to future urban wellbeing and livability. Urban trees can be nature-based solutions for mental and physical health, climate control, flood prevention and carbon sequestration. These ecosystem services may be severely curtailed by insect pests, which pose high mortality risks to trees in urban centers. Until now, the magnitudes and spatial distributions of mortality risks were unknown. Here, we combine new models of street tree populations in ∼30,000 United States (US) communities, species-specific spread predictions for 57 invasive insect species, and estimates of tree death due to insect exposure for 48 host tree genera. We estimate that an additional 1.4 million street trees will be killed by insects from 2020 through 2050, costing an annualized average of US$ 30M. However, these estimates hide substantial variation: 23% of urban centers will experience 95% of all insect-induced mortality, and 90% of all mortality will be due to emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis, EAB). We define an EAB high-impact zone spanning 902,500km2, largely within the Midwest and Northeast, within which we predict the death of 98.8% of all ash trees. “Mortality hotspot cities” facing costs of up to US$ 13.0 million each include Milwaukee, WI, Chicago, IL, and New York, NY. We identify Asian wood borers of maple and oak trees as posing the highest future risk to US urban trees, where a new establishment could cost US$ 4.9B over the same time frame.Significance StatementUS urbanization levels are already at 82% and are growing, making losses of ecosystem services due to urban tree mortality a matter of concern for the majority of its population. To plan effective mitigation, managers need to know which tree species in which parts of the country will be at greatest risk, as well as the highest-risk insects. We provide the first country-wide, spatial forecast of urban tree mortality due to invasive insect pests, including forecasts for each host tree and each insect species in each US community. This framework identifies dominant pest insects and spatial hotspots of high impact. Further, these findings produce a list of biotic and spatiotemporal risk factors for future high-impact US urban forest insect pests.

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Section: Text Boxesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Text Boxesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hotspots of pest-induced US urban tree death, 2020-2050

Hudgins

Koch

Ambrose

et al. 2021

Preprint

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“…A global assessment showed that > 50% of all plant species present in urban forests are exceeding their current climatic tolerance for mean annual temperature and, by 2050, this number will increase, jeopardizing the performance of urban ecosystems (Esperon-Rodriguez et al, 2021a). Climate change also increases the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, severe droughts and floods, which also threaten urban forests (Meehl & Tebaldi, 2004;Staudhammer et al, 2011;Yan & Yang, 2018;Zscheischler et al, 2018;Hilbert et al, 2019). These extreme events contribute to widespread dieback and increased tree mortality (Roman et al, 2014;Escobedo et al, 2016;Smith et al, 2019) (Figure 1).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, determining the direct drivers of urban tree dieback and mortality is challenging but essential in urban forestry planning to reduce environmental and socio-economic losses associated with failures and mortality, and to ensure sustained provision of ecosystem services by urban forests (Cimburova & Pont, 2021). In general, tree dieback and mortality often result from a slow accumulation of the effects of many stresses through time and interactions among multiple factors, including human removals of diseased and declining city trees prior to mortality (Franklin et al, 1987;Hilbert et al, 2019;Czaja et al, 2020;Hauer et al, 2020a;Hauer et al, 2020b).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Inadequate management may include unsuitable plant or site selection, poor quality of nursery planting stock, inappropriate planting technique, insufficient site preparation and maintenance during the establishment period, construction (e.g. new development and redevelopment), and vandalism Hilbert et al, 2019;Hauer et al, 2020a;Hauer et al, 2020b). Biophysical factors include climate, extreme weather events, pests and diseases, herbivory, and browsing (Hilbert et al, 2019;Hauer et al, 2020a;Hauer et al, 2020b).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessing climate risk to support urban forests in a changing climate

Esperón-Rodríguez¹,

Rymer²,

Power³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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The management of urban forests is a key element of resilience planning in cities across the globe. Urban forests provide ecosystem services as well as other nature-based solutions to 4.2 billion people living in cities. However, to continue to do so effectively, urban forests need to be able to thrive in an increasingly changing climate. Trees in cities are vulnerable to extreme heat and drought events, which are predicted to increase in frequency and severity under climate change. Knowledge of species’ vulnerability to climate change, therefore, is crucial to ensure provision of desired ecosystem benefits, improve species selection, maintain tree growth and reduce tree mortality, dieback and stress in urban forests. Yet, systematic assessments of causes of tree dieback and mortality in urban environments are rare. We reviewed the state of knowledge of tree mortality in urban forests globally, finding very few frameworks that enable detection of climate change impacts on urban forests and no long-term studies assessing climate change as a direct driver of urban tree dieback and mortality. The effects of climate change on urban forests remain poorly understood and quantified, constraining the ability of governments to incorporate climate change resilience into urban forestry planning.

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Assessing climate risk to support urban forests in a changing climate

Esperón-Rodríguez

Rymer

Power

et al. 2022

Plants People Planet

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Societal Impact Statement Globally, cities are planning for resilience through urban greening initiatives as governments understand the importance of urban forests in improving quality of life and mitigating climate change. However, the persistence of urban forests and the ecosystem benefits they provide are threatened by climate change, and systematic assessments of causes of tree dieback and mortality in urban environments are rare. Long‐term monitoring studies and adaptive management are needed to identify and prevent climate change‐driven failures and mortality. Research and monitoring when coupled with systematic forecasting will enable governments to incorporate climate change resilience into urban forestry planning. Future scenarios in which urban forests are resilient or in decline will depend on the management and planning actions we make today. Summary The management of urban forests is a key element of resilience planning in cities across the globe. Urban forests provide ecosystem services as well as other nature‐based solutions to 4.2 billion people living in cities. However, to continue to do so effectively, urban forests need to be able to thrive in an increasingly changing climate. Trees in cities are vulnerable to extreme heat and drought events, which are predicted to increase in frequency and severity under climate change. Knowledge of species' vulnerability to climate change, therefore, is crucial to ensure provision of desired ecosystem benefits, improve species selection, maintain tree growth and reduce tree mortality, dieback and stress in urban forests. Yet, systematic assessments of causes of tree dieback and mortality in urban environments are rare. We reviewed the state of knowledge of tree mortality in urban forests globally, finding very few frameworks that enable detection of climate change impacts on urban forests and no long‐term studies assessing climate change as a direct driver of urban tree dieback and mortality. The effects of climate change on urban forests remain poorly understood and quantified, constraining the ability of governments to incorporate climate change resilience into urban forestry planning.

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Urban Tree Mortality: A Literature Review

Cited by 61 publications

References 0 publications

Hotspots of pest-induced US urban tree death, 2020-2050

Hotspots of pest-induced US urban tree death, 2020-2050

Assessing climate risk to support urban forests in a changing climate

Assessing climate risk to support urban forests in a changing climate

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