Use case for predictive physiological models: tactical insights about frozen Russian soldiers in Ukraine

Abstract

Biomathematical models quantitatively describe human physiological responses to environmental and operational stressors and have been used for planning and real-time prevention of cold injury. These same models can be applied from a military tactical perspective to gain valuable insights into the health status of opponent soldiers. This paper describes a use case for predicting physiological status of Russian soldiers invading Ukraine using open-source information. In March 2022, media outlets reported Russian soldiers in a stalled convoy invading Ukraine were at serious risk of hypothermia and predicted these soldiers would be “freezing to death” within days because of declining temperatures (down to −20°C). Using existing Army models, clothing data and open-source intelligence, modelling and analyses were conducted within hours to quantitatively assess the conditions and provide science-based predictions. These predictions projected a significant increase in risks of frostbite for exposed skin and toes and feet, with a very low (negligible) risk of hypothermia. Several days later, media outlets confirmed these predictions, reporting a steep rise in evacuations for foot frostbite injuries in these Russian forces. This demonstrated what can be done today with the existing mathematical physiology and how models traditionally focused on health risk can be used for tactical intelligence.

Human performance and medical treatment during cold weather operations – synthesis of a symposium

“…The importance of all the factors was demonstrated by Potter et al [ 7 ] in a biomathematical model used to determine the thermal status of Russian soldiers trapped in an armoured vehicle convoy near Kyiv in Ukraine, when ambient temperatures decreased to sub-zero temperatures. Predictions of significant frostbite injury, particularly to exposed skin regions and the toes and feet, were later confirmed by news reports.…”

Analysis of tourniquet pressure over military winter clothing and a short review of combat casualty care in cold weather warfare

“…In current world politics, conflicts in cold climate regions are again increasingly a focus for military medicine. In the Ukraine war, for example, cold exposure is a relevant medical problem causing cold injuries [ 4 ]. It is well documented that hypothermia worsens coagulation and deteriorates traumatic bleeding [ 5 ].…”