Use of a future maintenance demand indicator for network level asset management decision making

Abstract

This paper discusses the development and first testing of a valid, reliable, functional and simple indicator, that represents the long term effect of short term decisions. Such an indicator can assist counteracting short term views in network level asset management decision making. Short-termism or myopia may occur in cases where service level agreements (SLA) are made upon for shorter time frames than the typical lifecycles of transport infrastructure. The developed indicator indicates the "discounted future maintenance demand" (DFMD) for a time period stretching beyond the initial agreement period (expressed in a monetary value). The main assumption here is that the effect of short term decisions are reflected in the future maintenance demand. The indicator was applied in a case using existing data and information sources. Use of the DFMD, together with other (related) indicators provides valuable insight in understanding long term effects of short term decisions.