Use of base rates and case cue information in making likelihood estimates

Stolarz‐Fantino, Stephanie; Fantino, Edmund; Borst, Nicholas Van

doi:10.3758/bf03193583

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…Although participants in the typical paperand-pencil laboratory task receive both pieces of information simultaneously, their past experience may lead them to rely more on the case cue (the witness) than on the base rate. Experimentation with a behavioral analogue suggests that making base rates more salient-as in the study by Case et al (1999)-should be a productive way to induce their use, and research with the more traditional paper-and-pencil task (e.g., Stolarz-Fantino et al, 2006) supports this view.…”

Section: Base-rate Neglectmentioning

confidence: 99%

The logic and illogic of human reasoning.

Fantino

Stolarz‐Fantino

2013

APA Handbook of Behavior Analysis, Vol. 1: Methods and Principles.

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The Oxford Dictionary of Psychology defines logic in a general way as "rational thinking as distinct from irrationality" (Colman, 2009, p. 429). It defines rational choices or decisions as "those that are in the best interests of the agent who makes them" and that "maximize expected utility" (Colman, 2009, p. 636). It characterizes rational beliefs as being internally consistent, rational preferences as being transitive, and rational inferences as obeying the rules of logic-the set of rules according to which valid conclusions can be drawn from sets of premises. Reason was similarly defined by neurologist Donald B. Calne (1999) in his book Within Reason:Reason is built upon a platform of logical induction (observations lead to conclusions which allow predictions) and logical deduction (if a and b are two classes and a is contained in b, then x is in a implies that x is in b). Reason assigns priority to observation over theory (Galileo's knife) and simplicity over complexity (Ockham's [sic] razor); it also demands consistency, coherence, and efficiency. (p. 286) Probability MatchingSome decision-making problems to which participants respond in a nonoptimal fashion were developed in the laboratory. Perhaps the most intensely studied is probability matching, whose provenance dates back at least to the pioneering studies of Humphreys (1939). In probability matching (or probability learning) experiments, participants are typically given repeated trials of a binary choice procedure in which one outcome pays off with a probability of Copyright American Psychological Association. Not for further distribution.

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Section: Base-rate Neglectmentioning

confidence: 99%

The logic and illogic of human reasoning.

Fantino

Stolarz‐Fantino

2013

APA Handbook of Behavior Analysis, Vol. 1: Methods and Principles.

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“…The phenomenon has been studied extensively (e.g. Kahneman & Tversky, ; Koehler, ; Stolarz‐Fantino, Fantino, & Van Borst, ) in paper‐and‐pencil tasks in which participants are told the base rates (or average probabilities) of an event. It was not clear, however, if the same degree of base‐rate neglect would be evident if the probabilities were directly experienced.…”

Section: Base‐rate Neglectmentioning

confidence: 99%

Description–experience Gaps: Assessments in Other Choice Paradigms

Fantino

Navarro

2011

Behavioral Decision Making

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Researchers have become increasingly interested in the descriptionexperience gap or the finding that people respond differently to the same quantitative information depending on whether it is described or experienced. Most studies on the gap have focused on binary choices between a safe option and a risky option and have compared decisions made from description alone versus experience alone. We review studies examining other decision-related phenomena-probability learning, the sunk-cost effect, choices in a repeated-trials prisoner's dilemma, and base-rate neglect-with an experience-based approach that often includes conditions combining description and experience. In probability learning, the sunk-cost effect and a repeated-trials prisoner's dilemma, participants come closer to behaving optimally when description and experience are simultaneously available than when experience alone is available. In studies of base-rate neglect, participants respond similarly under conditions of description alone and experience alone. Studies with nonhuman animals strengthen the generality of our conclusions regarding the sunk-cost effect and suggest a potential cause of base-rate neglect: a prior experience of having been rewarded for matching like items.

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“…Stolarz-Fantino et al (2006) found that even with base-rate story problems (similar to the taxicab problem) in which statistical information was presented in a probability format, human participants attended appropriately to base-rate information under certain conditions. For example, when they made likelihood judgments on a series of problems, their estimates of likelihood varied appropriately with base-rate and case-cue values; this was not the case when participants judged single problems.…”

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Enhancing sensitivity to base-rates: Natural frequencies are not enough

Fantino¹,

Stolarz‐Fantino²

2007

Behav Brain Sci

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We present evidence supporting the target article's assertion that while the presentation of base-rate information in a natural frequency format can be helpful in enhancing sensitivity to base rates, method of presentation is not a panacea. Indeed, we review studies demonstrating that when subjects directly experience base rates as natural frequencies in a trial-by-trial setting, they evince large base-rate neglect.

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Use of base rates and case cue information in making likelihood estimates

Cited by 5 publications

References 41 publications

The logic and illogic of human reasoning.

The logic and illogic of human reasoning.

Description–experience Gaps: Assessments in Other Choice Paradigms

Enhancing sensitivity to base-rates: Natural frequencies are not enough

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